XRP rallies 58% as Kalshi odds for $1.70 target climb

XRP rose 58 percent in August to near $1.20, its biggest breakout of 2026, as Kalshi odds for a $1.70 close climbed.

Kalshi prediction-market data shows traders now assign higher probability to XRP reaching $1.70 by Aug. 31, according to the platform's live market.

The rally added roughly $9.2 billion to XRP's market capitalization in 24 hours, lifting it from $63.08 billion to $72.27 billion, per CoinMarketCap. Spot volume climbed above $610 million on Aug. 19, the highest in two months, while derivatives longs account for 73.34 percent of open positions, Coinalyze data shows.

The move follows President Donald Trump's Aug. 19 call for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, which would clarify XRP's regulatory status. The Senate's Sept. 15 cloture vote is the next test, with Galaxy Research estimating only a 10 percent chance the legislation becomes law in 2026.

The rally was part of a broader crypto advance that saw Bitcoin jump 11 percent to cross $79,000 and Ethereum gain 17.7 percent, with more than $1.57 billion in positions liquidated over 24 hours, most of them shorts. The U.S. Treasury's decision to double long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per session pushed yields lower, improving the appeal of risk assets.

XRP began 2026 at $1.84 and had fallen roughly 35 percent by mid-August, trading between $0.99 and $1.08 for 19 days before the breakout. The token's recovery has been driven by renewed regulatory optimism after Trump hosted crypto executives, including Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, at the White House.

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds have logged $1.52 billion in cumulative net inflows across eight of nine trading months since launch, though the pace has slowed sharply from the $1.20 billion recorded in the first two months. Institutional demand through ETFs could reduce XRP available on exchanges, supporting further price gains.

If the CLARITY Act passes the Senate cloture vote on Sept. 15, XRP could recover above $1.50, with a full Senate vote potentially pushing the token toward $2. However, Galaxy Research's 10 percent probability estimate reflects the tight timeline and the need for at least seven Democratic votes.

A decisive close above $1.13 could put the $1.17 and $1.22 Fibonacci extension levels in focus, while a break below $1.08, the 38.2 percent retracement, would suggest momentum is fading. XRP's cycle high of $3.65, set in late 2025, remains the long-term target if regulatory clarity materializes.

If the CLARITY Act fails, XRP could trade between $0.70 and $1 in 2027, extending the timeline for reclaiming its highs. The token's recovery path depends on both legislative progress and sustained ETF inflows.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.