XRP holds $1 support as whale buying raises short squeeze odds

XRP held above $1 on Aug. 10, trading at $1.05 after a 1.94 percent decline, as whale accumulation set up short squeeze conditions.

The setup follows a 79 percent collapse in U.S. spot XRP ETF inflows since May, from $131.94 million to $27.29 million in July, according to spot ETF filing data. The legislative backdrop compounds the pressure: the Senate deferred the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act past its Aug. 7 recess, leaving Sept. 14 as the earliest plausible floor vote, with Polymarket traders pricing a 14 percent chance of passage this year.

XRP has retreated 6 percent over the past 30 days while Ethereum gained 10 percent and BNB rose 5 percent. The Relative Strength Index sits at 34, approaching oversold territory, and a descending triangle has formed from a series of lower highs. Support clusters at $1.05-$1.07 with resistance at $1.15-$1.18.

If the $1 support fails, analysts see a potential 35 percent decline. Conversely, a short squeeze could force bears to cover, pushing XRP through resistance toward $1.25-$1.30. The CLARITY Act's fate in September will determine whether institutional flows return or the token faces renewed downside pressure.

Whale Accumulation vs. Legislative Gridlock

The whale buying on the XRP Ledger comes as institutional allocators have pulled back sharply. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in $131.94 million in May during peak Senate committee momentum, but monthly net inflows contracted to $59.46 million in June and just $27.29 million in July. Prediction markets have aggressively re-priced the bill's prospects: Kalshi traders dropped the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to approximately 17 percent, down from an 82 percent high in February.

The CLARITY Act cleared the House in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote and passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has yet to grant the bill floor time, prioritizing executive nominations and a foreign sanctions package instead. With Republicans commanding 53 seats, leadership requires at least seven Democratic crossover votes to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to invoke cloture.

Technical Setup Points Both Ways

XRP's current configuration is less about fundamentals and more about their absence. No fresh court ruling, no new U.S. exchange listing — just technicals and community sentiment keeping the $1.00-$1.05 band in focus. Traders have been explicit: $1.05 is the line for near-term bulls. With price now testing that zone, the next 48 hours carry outsized weight for short-term positioning.

A daily close below $1.05 invalidates the current support thesis and puts $0.95-$1.00 back on the table. The RSI at 34 could produce a short-term bounce, but it also means bearish momentum is accelerating. Thin volume on a test of support is less alarming than high-volume selling pressure, and traders are watching whether the move holds or accelerates into the close.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.