Key Takeaways:
XRP has fallen further from its all-time high than any other major cryptocurrency, and its market structure is turning more dangerous by the week.
XRP price has collapsed roughly 67% from its record high, the deepest drawdown among the top five cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins, according to CoinGecko data as of July 29. The token sits about 355 days from its peak with no recovery in sight, trailing its peer average by more than 12 percentage points over the past three months.
"A divergence reading that compares the net-long bias of top traders against the retail crowd shows both groups leaning long on XRP at once, with a spread of just +2," the data provider said. "When nearly everyone is already positioned the same way, there is no fresh buyer left to lift the price." Top traders sit at a net-long bias of +29 and retail at +27, a reading the tool flags as an aligned, or crowded, long. Bitcoin carries none of this risk — its divergence stands at negative 13, with top traders at +2 against retail at +15.
The damage is visible across time frames. XRP's 90-day return sits near negative 21%, the worst of the four majors, against roughly negative 48% for Bitcoin, negative 60% for Ethereum, and negative 56% for BNB from their respective peaks. XRP traders have already lost $700 million in a single liquidation cascade this cycle, Coinglass data shows. The token's repeated recovery attempts have been rejected at resistance, with each bounce shallower than the last.
The deeper risk is that XRP's fragile setup has no obvious catalyst to break it. A rare pileup of leveraged longs and a quiet retreat by the largest whales are combining to make XRP the most structurally vulnerable major coin in the market.
Whale Supply Is Shrinking at the Worst Moment
Santiment data on wallets holding 1 billion XRP or more shows their share of total supply sliding from 39.4% on April 30 to about 38.65% currently, a steady three-month decline. That retreat by the largest holders removes a source of price support precisely when the derivatives book is most crowded.
When almost everyone is already long, there is no marginal buyer to push the price higher. And the moment XRP slips, leveraged longs are forced to sell into the drop, accelerating the decline. Bitcoin faces none of this dynamic — its derivatives book shows neutral positioning, giving it room to run that XRP does not.
What Comes Next for XRP
XRP trades at about $1.05 as of July 29, down roughly 43% year to date and 71% below the $3.65 it reached in July 2025. The token's monthly relative strength index hit its lowest reading on record in June, below anything printed during the COVID crash or the Terra collapse, according to TradingView data. Readings that low have historically preceded cycle bottoms.
The CLARITY Act, which would settle XRP's regulatory status permanently, remains stalled in the Senate. Majority Leader John Thune has not filed the motion needed to start debate, and a final vote before the August recess looks unlikely. Without a regulatory catalyst or a shift in whale accumulation, XRP's path of least resistance remains lower until the crowded long book clears.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
