US urges Middle East exits as Iran war enters sixth month

The State Department's evacuation advisory marks Washington's clearest signal yet that the US-Iran war could widen beyond the Gulf.

The State Department on Saturday urged Americans across the Middle East to consider leaving the region, warning of flight disruptions and security risks as the US-Iran war entered its sixth month and oil prices climbed.

"Americans currently in the Middle East should consider departing, or be prepared to depart should there be escalation," the State Department said in a security alert distributed through US embassies in 10 countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

The warning came as President Donald Trump threatened additional attacks, saying Friday the US would be "hitting them very hard," while Iran vowed to "punish" the US. Kuwait's army said its air defenses intercepted drone attacks from Iran on Saturday, and Britain's UKMTO reported a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, damaging its engine room.

Iran's foreign ministry reaffirmed its determination to resist, and a senior Iranian security official said a full retaliation plan targeting Israeli critical infrastructure and US energy facilities in the Middle East is ready to launch. Trump has not yet issued a final strike order, leaving markets to price the risk of a wider conflict through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil.

Strait of Hormuz risk premium builds

The conflict has now entered its sixth month despite Trump's early prediction that the war would resolve itself "shortly." A brief reprieve came in June when the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding outlining talks to end the war, but Trump declared the ceasefire "over" in early July and the countries resumed strikes.

The protracted fighting has pushed oil prices higher globally and lifted US gasoline prices. The last time the Strait of Hormuz faced a comparable closure threat, in 2019 after attacks on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility, Brent crude jumped nearly 15 percent in a single session, underscoring how quickly the risk premium can reprice.

Retaliation plan targets energy infrastructure

A senior Iranian security official said Tehran has prepared a full retaliation plan targeting Israeli critical infrastructure and US energy facilities across the Middle East, ready to launch at any time. The State Department warned that Iran and groups aligned with Tehran could target US diplomatic missions, businesses and institutions worldwide, noting the regime had recently expanded attacks to countries "not previously targeted, such as Egypt."

The US Embassy in Abu Dhabi and Consulate General in Dubai remain on ordered departure status, with non-emergency personnel relocated outside the UAE. The advisory also urged Americans to enroll in the State Department's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program to receive security updates.

If Iran strikes US energy facilities, crude could spike further and safe-haven assets such as gold and the dollar would rally, while global equities face a risk-off repricing. If the conflict de-escalates, the oil risk premium would unwind just as quickly as it built.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.