Trump warms to Zelensky as Ukraine drone output hits millions

President Trump reversed his view that Ukraine was losing the war, now praising President Volodymyr Zelensky as a "winner" ahead of their White House meeting Tuesday, a shift driven by Ukraine's drone industry expansion to millions of units per year.

"We've actually developed a good relationship. It's hard to believe, right?" Trump said during a July meeting with Zelensky in Turkey, according to a White House official who described the president as increasingly impressed by Ukraine's fighting capability.

Ukraine's drone production surged from about 5,000 units in 2022 to millions per year by 2026, Ukrainian government data show. Ukrainian strikes have reached the outskirts of Moscow and as far as Siberia, while a weekend operation hit Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea that were funneling arms to Russia. Trump has privately expressed admiration for Ukraine's defense against Iranian-made Shahed drones — the same type U.S. forces now face in the Middle East, administration officials said.

The meeting tests whether Trump's shift can produce concrete outcomes. The White House signaled openness to granting Kyiv a license to produce U.S. Patriot missile interceptors and expressed interest in joint drone production — moves that could reshape the defense industrial relationship and alter the trajectory of the 28-month war.

The turnaround is remarkable given the relationship's low point in February 2025, when Trump called Zelensky a dictator during a tense Oval Office meeting and subsequently paused all military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. European leaders and Republican allies — including the late Senator Lindsey Graham, whose funeral brings Zelensky to Washington — spent months repairing the rift.

Trump initially believed Russia's military would overpower Ukraine, according to a senior administration official. But a series of interactions shifted his view: a private huddle with Zelensky at Pope Francis's funeral at the Vatican, a meeting with heavyweight boxer Oleksandr Usyk who told Trump that "Ukrainians are fighters," and a reversal by right-wing activist Laura Loomer after she traveled to Kyiv and interviewed Zelensky, calling him an "essential ally."

Defense Sector Implications

The warming relationship carries direct implications for U.S. defense contractors. Trump's interest in joint drone production and a Patriot missile license for Kyiv could open new revenue streams for companies including RTX Corp. and General Atomics, while Ukraine's demonstrated drone capabilities — producing millions of units annually — position it as a potential manufacturing partner rather than just a recipient of aid.

The last time the U.S. expanded defense industrial cooperation with a wartime ally was during the Afghanistan surge, when Pentagon contracts to local suppliers exceeded $4 billion annually. Ukraine's drone sector alone could represent a comparable opportunity, analysts said.

What Comes Next

Trump has told Putin he wants the war to end, citing high casualties on both sides, and a White House official said the president is optimistic a peace deal can be reached. But U.S. officials assess that Putin has not altered his strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine, despite staggering battlefield losses and escalating Ukrainian drone strikes. The meeting Tuesday will signal whether Trump's warmer view of Zelensky translates into sustained U.S. support — or whether it proves as fleeting as previous shifts in the president's foreign policy judgments.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.