Trump declares war on Iran again, triggering 60-day clock for Congress

President Donald Trump formally notified Congress on July 10 that the US is again at war with Iran, restarting a 60-day War Powers clock after airstrikes against more than 300 military targets shattered a fragile ceasefire.

The renewed hostilities, which began with airstrikes on July 7, have already pushed crude oil toward the $120-a-barrel threshold last seen during the war's February outbreak, as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens 21% of global seaborne petroleum trade.

"The administration's notification resets the legal clock, but the real constraint is market-driven — every day the strait remains contested adds $3 to $5 to the global crude price," said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

US Central Command said it struck more than 300 Iranian military installations over the past week, including coastal surveillance networks, missile defense systems and IRGC naval facilities in Bandar Abbas, Asaluyeh and Qeshm Island. Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles and drones at US positions in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, widening a conflict that Congress has twice voted to halt — the Senate 50-48 on June 23 and the House 215-208 on June 3 — though both measures were non-binding concurrent resolutions that carry no legal force.

The escalation threatens to derail a June 17 interim agreement that had reopened the strait under a multinational naval coalition, which shepherded 140 commercial vessels through the waterway last week — down from a pre-war average of 140 ships daily. With the 60-day War Powers clock now running and midterm elections approaching, the White House faces mounting pressure from Republican lawmakers worried that sustained $4-a-gallon gasoline could cost them their majority.

Strait of Hormuz Becomes the Battlefield

The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has emerged as the central theater of the 2026 Iran War. Before the conflict, roughly 20% of the world's daily petroleum and liquefied natural gas consumption passed through these waters. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has asserted control over transit corridors, demanding fees and dictating shipping routes — a position Washington rejects as a violation of international maritime law.

Trump escalated further on July 13, declaring the US would reimpose a blockade and charge ships for transit through the strait. The move effectively nationalizes the waterway's security architecture, placing the US Navy's Fifth Fleet — headquartered in Bahrain, one of the countries hit by Iranian retaliatory strikes — at the center of an escalating naval confrontation.

Congressional Authority Remains Unsettled

Trump's July 10 letter to Congress stated the airstrikes were "military action consistent with my responsibility to protect Americans and United States' interests both at home and abroad." The notification follows a pattern of legal maneuvering: Trump notified lawmakers in May that the war launched Feb. 28 had "terminated," negating the initial 60-day deadline, before the April ceasefire collapsed.

The last time the US engaged in sustained hostilities without congressional authorization was the 2011 Libya intervention, which lasted seven months before President Barack Obama acknowledged exceeding the War Powers Resolution's 60-day limit. Legal scholars remain divided on whether the current notification restarts the clock or merely acknowledges an ongoing conflict that Congress has been unable to stop through non-binding resolutions.

Oil Markets Price in Prolonged Disruption

Brent crude has added $8 to $10 a barrel since the July 7 airstrikes resumed, according to traders, with options skew signaling a 35% probability of prices exceeding $130 within 30 days. Maritime insurers have raised war-risk premiums for vessels operating in the Middle Eastern theater, forcing shipping conglomerates to evaluate rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope — a detour that adds 10 to 14 days and $1 million to $2 million in fuel costs per voyage.

Gold has rallied 3% since the notification, while the US Dollar Index gained 0.8% as investors rotated into safe-haven assets. Defense stocks, including Lockheed Martin and RTX, have outperformed the broader S&P 500 by 5 to 7 percentage points since the strikes began.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.