SpaceX stock crashes 50% as lockup expiry looms over post-IPO rally

SpaceX shares have lost half their value since their June peak, with a lockup expiration set to unleash more supply on Aug. 6.

SpaceX shares closed at $112.55 on Wednesday, down 50.2% from a $225.64 peak reached four days after its June 12 IPO, as the approaching end of a lockup period compounds valuation concerns.

"Many investors expect SpaceX shares to fall to $100 as IPO lockup restrictions begin expiring, allowing early shareholders to sell their stakes," analysts at Morgan Stanley led by Adam Jonas wrote in a note, reiterating an Overweight rating and $300 price target that implies 166% upside.

The stock has erased more than $1.2 trillion in market value from its peak. The lockup period for pre-IPO shareholders expires Aug. 6, and Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens said a "wave" of selling is likely given the low cost basis and long holding periods of existing holders. SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on Aug. 4.

If the stock falls to $100, Morgan Stanley said it would be pricing in little or no value for SpaceX's AI business while also undervaluing its launch and connectivity operations. The company's Colossus data center deal with Reflection AI is expected to generate $150 million per month starting July 1, with total payments reaching about $6.3 billion through 2029.

Analysts Split on Valuation After 50% Rout

Of 33 analysts covering SpaceX, 22 rate it a Strong Buy, two a Moderate Buy, eight a Hold and one a Moderate Sell, according to data compiled by the firm. The consensus price target of $228.06 implies 102.6% upside from current levels.

Bernstein's Douglas Harned maintained an Outperform rating and $239 price target after SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight on July 24, calling the mission a "major success" despite the loss of the V3 booster on landing. The upper stage successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites and achieved an in-space engine relight — the first Starship test since the June IPO.

HSBC initiated coverage with a Hold rating and $115 price target, cautioning that while SpaceX remains the clear leader in commercial launch, valuing long-term opportunities such as space-based data centers and the lunar economy remains difficult.

AI Business Becomes Central to Investment Case

SpaceX's revenue reached $18.7 billion in 2025, up from $10.4 billion in 2023, but the company posted a net loss of $4.9 billion last year as capital expenditures surged to $20.7 billion. Spending on artificial intelligence jumped from $463 million in 2023 to $12.7 billion in 2025, becoming the largest category of investment.

In the first quarter of 2026, revenue rose more than 15% year over year to $4.7 billion, with connectivity contributing $3.3 billion, AI $818 million and space operations $619 million. Net losses widened to $4.3 billion from $528 million a year earlier, reflecting the heavy spending on AI infrastructure.

The company acquired AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion shortly after its IPO. Cursor had surpassed $2.6 billion in annual recurring revenue by mid-2026 with more than one million paying customers. With over 10 million Starlink subscribers, SpaceX has a distribution channel for cross-selling AI products that competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic lack.

Short sellers have pocketed $15.5 billion on the slide, and prediction markets give just 4% odds of SPCX recovering above $150 by the end of the month. The stock trades at 596.97 times forward earnings and 39.2 times sales, far above the sector medians of 12.87 and 1.22, respectively.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.