24/7 Wall St. sets a $124.43 price target on Rocket Lab, implying 92.38% upside from the current $64.68 price. The buy rating rests on a record $2.2 billion backlog, a $266 million Space Force contract, and Neutron engine test progress. The stock fell 36% in July from its $151 peak, creating what the firm calls a buying opportunity.
Rocket Lab shares trade at $64.68 with a $124.43 price target from 24/7 Wall St., implying 92.38% upside after a 36% July drawdown.
Citizens reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating with a $130 target, and Stifel's Erik Rasmussen maintained a Buy at $132, citing the company's defense contract pipeline and Neutron progress.
Q1 FY2026 revenue hit $200.35 million, up 63.5% year over year, with an EPS loss of -$0.07 beating the -$0.0787 consensus. Backlog swelled to $2.2 billion, and on July 21 Rocket Lab landed a $266 million Space Force suborbital launch contract, its largest defense award.
The stock fell 36.37% over the past month from its $151 peak, reflecting sector rotation after SpaceX's June listing and dilution concerns tied to the pending $8 billion Iridium acquisition. The pullback erased froth while fundamentals strengthened, creating what 24/7 Wall St. calls a buying opportunity.
Three drivers underpin the bull case. Rocket Lab completed a full-duration burn test of the Neutron second-stage AVac engine in mid-July, keeping the medium-lift reusable rocket on track for a later 2026 debut. The company was also selected for the Golden Dome Space Based Interceptor program with Raytheon, holds the $816 million SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 contract, and now adds the $266 million Space Force award. Pentagon spending supports the thesis: FY2027 Space Force procurement includes nine SDA launches as part of a $59.7 billion space-based systems budget.
The bear case centers on cash burn. FY2025 free cash flow was -$321.8 million, and Q1 alone saw $450 million raised through an ATM offering. Piper Sandler initiated at Neutral with an $83 target, citing a price-to-sales ratio of 54. Bulls counter that heavy capex reflects Neutron infrastructure and integration of the Mynaric, Motiv, and Geost acquisitions.
Peer comparisons support the valuation. AST SpaceMobile posted Q1 revenue of $14.73 million against a $16 billion market cap, while Rocket Lab generates more than 13 times that revenue at roughly 2 times the market cap. Intuitive Machines reported $186.73 million in Q1 revenue at a $2.56 billion market cap but lacks a launch platform and Neutron optionality.
The bull case scenario points to $158.75 over the next 12 months if Neutron flies successfully and Iridium closes on schedule. The bear case target is $97.24 if Neutron slips or Iridium financing hits snags. The stock carries a 2.55 beta, making it a high-volatility play on space infrastructure.
The setup rewards investors comfortable with volatility who want Neutron optionality. The thesis weakens if another Neutron delay materializes or if the Iridium deal breaks. Investors will watch for Neutron's first flight later this year and the Iridium acquisition closing as the next events.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
