Robinhood Markets shares jumped 16.6% on Thursday after Piper Sandler and Deutsche Bank analysts flagged prediction markets for football and company performance as a growth driver. Piper Sandler raised its price target to $145 from $135, while Deutsche Bank projected company KPI contracts could surpass $1 trillion in volume by 2028.
Shares of the trading app closed sharply higher Thursday as Wall Street analysts pointed to event contracts for football and corporate metrics as the next revenue engine.
"Given Kalshi and HOOD's US-centric user base, and the large gap in popularity between soccer and football in the US, we view the explosive World Cup volumes as a leading indicator of what's to come — the NFL and NCAA football season should be a significant catalyst for HOOD's 3Q26 and 4Q26 prediction market revenue," Patrick Moley, analyst at Piper Sandler, said.
Moley lifted his price target on Robinhood to $145 from $135, implying roughly 35 percent upside from Wednesday's close, and raised his 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share estimates by 5 percent and 7 percent, respectively. He reiterated an overweight rating. The bullish call follows confirmation that Rothera, the prediction-markets joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, won Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval to offer football contracts covering wins and spreads.
Deutsche Bank's Brian Bedell went further, predicting that contracts tied to companies' financial key performance indicators will become the largest event-contract category within prediction markets. "For the U.S., we believe company KPI contract volume could surpass 1 trillion in 2028 from virtually nothing today, exceeding sports volumes, even in any positive SCOTUS ruling in favor of national regulation," Bedell said.
Robinhood has moved quickly to capture the market. Between June and August, average monthly prediction-market volumes at the app grew 88 percent versus the January-to-May period, driven largely by World Cup engagement, Piper Sandler estimated. Roughly 23 percent of prediction-market volume has shifted to Rothera from rival Kalshi since June, the firm found, and it projects users will trade about 29.7 billion event contracts from September through December, generating around $320 million in revenue, or $960 million annualized.
Football accounted for 42 percent of Kalshi's total volume in the 2025 season, with about $14 billion in NFL and NCAA trading, though major sports made up just 54 percent of Kalshi's mix in August 2026, down from a high of 83 percent in November 2025. Morgan Stanley also upgraded Robinhood this week, noting prediction markets have been tapped by only about 7 percent of its customer base.
The analyst enthusiasm signals management's product roadmap is resonating with investors who see event contracts as a high-margin, engagement-driving revenue stream. The stock's next test comes when Robinhood reports third-quarter results, where football-season prediction-market revenue will be in focus, and as the Supreme Court weighs a New Jersey challenge to Kalshi that could shape national regulation of the sector.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
