Polymarket gives Ethereum 17% odds at $3,000 as ETH slides below $1,900

Ethereum has a 17% probability of reaching $3,000 by year-end, according to Polymarket, as the token fell to $1,860 on July 25 after failing to hold gains above $1,950 earlier in the week.

"Polymarket and Kalshi markets likely underestimate odds of passage" of the CLARITY Act, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said in a July 24 note, arguing that recent restrictions preventing senators from trading on prediction markets limit informed activity. Lee has set a $22,000 long-term price target for Ether, which would require a gain of about 1,040% from current levels, based on historical ETH-to-Bitcoin ratios and a $250,000 Bitcoin price.

Ether traded at $1,861.83 as of 11:00 p.m. UTC on July 24, down 0.8% over the prior 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. The token is up 3.6% over the past week and 9.4% over the past month but remains 40% below its year-ago level. More than $2.1 million had been wagered on the Polymarket contract for Ethereum's 2026 year-end price, the platform showed, while Kalshi listed a parallel market with similar odds.

The 17% probability reflects bearish sentiment among prediction market bettors, who see a roughly equal chance of Ether finishing the year above $1,000 or below $3,000. Ethereum's all-time high of $4,953.73 was set on Aug. 24, 2025, meaning the token would need to rally about 166% from current levels just to reclaim its record. Lee's more aggressive scenario of $22,000 would require Ether to add about $20,070 to its price, or roughly 11.4 times its current value.

The CLARITY Act, which would establish the first comprehensive federal framework for digital asset markets, has a 47% probability of passing according to Polymarket, up from 43% earlier in the week. Lee argued that the bill's odds are being underestimated because political insiders face restrictions on trading relevant outcomes. Fundstrat head of digital asset strategy Sean Farrell said in the same note that he remains skeptical "that this market fully reflects informed expectations given its relatively limited liquidity."

The divergence between prediction market odds and analyst forecasts highlights the uncertainty surrounding Ethereum's trajectory. Lee has also highlighted Ethereum's strengthening as an "AI downstream" asset, arguing that the token could benefit as the AI investment cycle broadens beyond chips and data centers. For Ether to reach even the lower end of Lee's near-term target range of $7,000 to $9,000, it would first need to reclaim the $2,000 and $3,000 levels that prediction markets currently assign a low probability of reaching this year.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.