Key Takeaways:
HYPE open interest surpassed $13 billion for the first time since October as the token hit an all-time high of $82.43 on Aug. 22.
The derivatives milestone shows traders adding leveraged exposure rather than closing positions, according to Hyperliquid exchange data. HYPE was last at $78.98 as of 04:00 EDT, up 8.5 percent over 24 hours, with a market cap of $17.56 billion.
Perpetual volume reached $17.05 billion over 24 hours, with HYPE contracts accounting for $1.93 billion. Protocol revenue hit $4.94 million in a single day, projecting to $1.80 billion annualized, while the 30-day base annualizes to $468 million — roughly a third of Arthur Hayes's $1.4 billion bull-case estimate.
The combination of record-high open interest and an overbought daily RSI near 80 raises the risk of aggressive deleveraging if momentum reverses. The $75-77 range is the first critical support test, with $85 and $90 as next psychological targets.
The rally comes as Hyperliquid overtook Pump.fun in daily fees, generating $6.5 million over the past day compared with $1.5 million for the Solana-based meme coin launchpad, according to Token Terminal data. Hyperliquid also led in revenue at $5.6 million versus $1.3 million, with roughly 102,800 daily active users compared with Pump.fun's 95,200.
Regulatory optimism added fuel. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said Thursday he had instructed staff to communicate with onchain developers about compliant U.S. products and outlined a route for certain non-registered crypto exchanges to apply for a specific exchange designation. Hyperliquid has not received U.S. approval, and the service remains off-limits to users in the United States.
The token's surge outpaced its revenue base. HYPE's market cap rose by roughly $956 million in a single day, far exceeding the protocol's daily revenue of $4.94 million. With a fully diluted value of $78.91 billion, the market is pricing in significant growth ahead.
Q2 data shows the gap between volume and monetization. Real-world-asset perpetuals generated $213 billion in volume, accounting for 32.2 percent of platform participation, but contributed just 6.6 percent of the $169 million in quarterly revenue. Hyperliquid conducted buybacks totaling $141 million.
Hayes, who set a $150 price target for HYPE, argues the buyback mechanism distinguishes Hyperliquid from rivals. "No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid," he said.
Analyst scenarios range widely. FXEmpire sees a breakout target of $100, while DCo research's base case is $60. The downside case from FXEmpire is $45 if technical support fails.
The broader crypto market rallied alongside HYPE. Bitcoin gained 2.1 percent to $77,296, Ether rose 2.5 percent to $2,433.99, and Solana advanced 4.4 percent to $94.46 over 24 hours. PURR, another Hyperliquid ecosystem token, climbed 24 percent to $0.1102.
Market participants will watch whether daily revenue stays above its 30-day average, whether HYPE can reclaim the $82.43 record, and whether the CFTC announces a formal rulemaking schedule. A break below $75 would shift the technical picture, with the next support cluster at $60-63.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
