Key Takeaways:
- Gold trades near $4,395 an ounce, up a seventh straight session
- Fed September hike odds fall to 33.1% after soft retail sales
- RSI(14) at 64.09; upper Bollinger band at $4,480 is next resistance
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Gold nears $4,400 as Fed hike bets fade despite Iran tensions
Gold traded near $4,395 an ounce Monday, up a seventh straight session as cooling US inflation cut odds of a September Fed rate hike.
US Retail Sales fell 0.6 percent month-over-month in July, after a 0.2 percent rise in June and versus a 0.1 percent expected gain, the Census Bureau reported Friday, adding to evidence that price pressures are easing after last week's CPI and PPI readings.
Money markets now price a 33.1 percent chance of a September Fed hike, per the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Commerzbank analysts said the backdrop stays supportive, citing renewed buying interest from ETF investors, though they flagged a pullback to $4,320 an ounce as a sign the path higher will not be smooth.
Gold last traded above $4,500 in early June. The upper Bollinger band at $4,480 is the next resistance, with the 100-day SMA at $4,385.85 the immediate floor; a break below the middle band near $4,195 would expose the lower band at $3,905.
Fed Hike Odds Slide to 33.1% After Soft Retail Sales
July CPI rose 0.1 percent month-over-month, in line with forecasts and after a 0.4 percent decline in June, while initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 8 reached 209,000, above the 202,000 economists expected. Morgan Stanley chief economic strategist Ellen Zentner said the view that the Fed "doesn't need to raise interest rates" is being reinforced by signs of a weakening labor market. The Fed next meets in September, with another inflation report due Sept. 11.
Iran Tensions Cap Safe-Haven Gains
Persistent Middle East tensions may limit upside. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called on the US to "accept the reality of defeat" after President Donald Trump suggested he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a "territory of the United States." Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said no negotiations are currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.
Silver traded at $65.57 an ounce, up $0.68, while gold futures briefly touched $4,500 during the CPI-inspired rally. Gold remains below the record high above $5,000 set earlier in 2026. A clear break above $4,474 could open the path toward $4,600, according to market analysis.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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