The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world's oil, remains contested as both Washington and Tehran claim control after a third day of exchanges.
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Brent crude surges 3% as US-Iran strikes escalate Strait crisis
The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world's oil, remains contested as both Washington and Tehran claim control after a third day of exchanges.
Brent crude jumped 3% to $96.60 a barrel after the US and Iran traded fresh military strikes over the Strait of Hormuz, delaying the reopening of a waterway that handles about 20% of global oil shipments.
"The market is pricing in a prolonged disruption scenario that we haven't seen since the 2019 Abqaiq attacks," said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "Each round of strikes makes a diplomatic off-ramp harder to envision."
The latest escalation follows the collapse of a fragile ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacking commercial shipping and the US responding with strikes on Iranian targets. Iran has declared it will continue hostilities until what it calls US interference in the region ends. The 3% surge in Brent reverses recent diplomatic optimism that had pushed prices lower, returning the market to the geopolitical risk premium that characterized earlier phases of the 2026 conflict.
An extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, according to RBC Capital Markets scenarios, while raising fuel costs for import-dependent economies across Asia and Europe. The last time the strait faced a sustained threat — during the 2019 tanker attacks — oil prices spiked 15% over six weeks before stabilizing.
The military exchanges mark a significant deterioration from the diplomatic track that had shown promise as recently as last month. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan, whose previous efforts at brokering peace had faltered, have yet to announce new talks. The United Nations and European Union have called for restraint, though no concrete intervention has materialized.
Supply Risks Extend Beyond the Strait
Beyond the immediate disruption to tanker traffic, the conflict threatens broader supply chains across the Persian Gulf. The IRGC's attacks on commercial shipping have forced several major carriers to reroute vessels, adding transit time and insurance costs. OPEC+ has not yet signaled any production adjustment to compensate for potential supply losses, though the group's next scheduled meeting is in August.
The price move also rippled through related markets. Gold rose 0.8% to $2,385 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets, while the US dollar index gained 0.3% against a basket of major currencies. Asian equity markets were mixed, with energy stocks gaining while transport and airline shares declined on higher fuel cost expectations.
What Comes Next
Traders are watching for statements from US President Donald Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader for any signal of de-escalation or further military action. The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable for oil prices in the near term. Any extended closure — even partial — could support further price increases, while a renewed ceasefire would likely trigger a sharp selloff as the risk premium unwinds.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Oil surges following continued U.S.-Iran strikes[2] US, Iran exchange fire over Strait of Hormuz amid escalating 2026 conflict - Crypto Briefing[3] Brent oil jumps 3% as US-Iran tensions escalate, impacting Strait of Hormuz - Crypto Briefing[4] U.S. launches more strikes on Iran as standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalates[5] US and Iran trade new rounds of attacks in fight over Strait of Hormuz
