BlackRock set to report Q2 earnings as analysts expect 5% EPS growth

BlackRock Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter results before the opening bell on Wednesday, July 15, with Wall Street projecting the world's largest asset manager to post earnings per share of $12.65, up 5 percent from a year earlier.

"The results will test whether BlackRock's scale and diversified model can sustain organic fee growth amid industry fee compression," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Michael Cyprys said in a note, reiterating an overweight rating with a $1,430 price target.

Revenue is expected to reach $6.74 billion, representing 24.4 percent year-over-year growth, according to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. A second consensus projection sees EPS of $12.57 on revenue of $6.72 billion. BlackRock has exceeded consensus EPS estimates in each of the past four quarters and beaten revenue expectations in three of those periods.

The report comes as BlackRock's first-quarter performance set a high bar. The firm reported $136 billion in long-term net inflows, including a record $132 billion into iShares exchange-traded products, alongside $3 billion in active equity inflows and $9 billion in private markets inflows led by private credit and infrastructure. First-quarter organic fee growth reached 8 percent year over year, while adjusted operating margin expanded by more than 100 basis points.

What analysts are watching

Investors will focus on three areas: net inflows into iShares ETFs and active strategies, fee revenue trends, and the performance of BlackRock's Aladdin technology platform and alternatives business. The recently launched iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF will also draw attention as a potential incremental growth driver.

Barclays raised its price target to $1,340, while Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $1,430. Of the 17 analysts covering the stock, 14 recommend buying, three maintain hold ratings and none recommend selling. The average price target of $1,259 implies roughly 22 percent upside from the current share price of $1,029.85.

Earnings estimates have climbed 0.75 percent over the past 60 days, while revenue forecasts have increased 1.74 percent, reflecting growing confidence ahead of the quarterly print. Morgan Stanley projects BlackRock will deliver roughly 18 percent EPS compound annual growth from 2025 through 2028, driven by its iShares ETF platform, multi-asset and alternatives businesses, and its growing Aladdin technology offering.

What's at stake

A strong quarter that confirms continued organic fee growth and margin expansion could push the stock toward the $1,259 consensus target and beyond. The key risk is a sharp slowdown in net inflows or fee-rate pressure that forces earnings guidance lower. Management commentary on client demand, market conditions and capital deployment will shape the outlook for the second half of the year.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.