BlackRock plans to return over $5.7 billion to shareholders in 2026

BlackRock plans to return more than $5.7 billion to shareholders in 2026, the world's largest asset manager announced Monday as it reported second-quarter results.

"The capital return plan reflects confidence in the business and commitment to shareholder value," UBS analysts led by Brennan Hawken wrote in a note, projecting the firm will average $14.5 trillion in assets under management this quarter.

The $5.7 billion target includes at least $450 million in quarterly share buybacks for the remainder of this year, according to UBS. The bank raised its 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share estimates to $53.87 and $60.48, respectively, while maintaining a $1,270 price target. UBS trimmed its multiple to 21 times from 21.5 times, citing uncertainty around private assets and how tokenization could reshape competition.

The announcement comes as BlackRock targets a 50% plus operating margin and expands into private assets and tokenized money market funds, with its BUIDL product managing nearly $2.9 billion. The firm's iShares ETF franchise is expected to see $110 billion in equity inflows this quarter, one of the strongest on record, UBS said. Fixed income ETFs are on pace for a record quarter with an estimated $66 billion in inflows.

Management fees are pegged at $5.6 billion, ahead of the Street's $5.5 billion consensus, supported by a higher average fee rate and rising AUM. BlackRock's technology and risk management fees, including Aladdin and Preqin, are expected to climb 12% year over year. The firm's organic base fee growth is tracking at about 7.8%, at the high end of its 6% to 7% or higher guidance range.

The $5.7 billion return target puts BlackRock among the most generous capital return programs in the asset management industry, surpassing peers such as State Street and Invesco on a relative basis. The plan also comes as a broader industry shift toward tokenization accelerates, with 66% of institutions planning to launch tokenized money market funds by 2027, according to a report from Global Digital Finance and ISDA. Tokenized Treasury and money market products now exceed $15 billion in on-chain assets, with BlackRock's BUIDL ranking second behind Hashnote's USYC.

The strong ETF flow momentum provides a tailwind for BlackRock's fee income. UBS expects iShares equity inflows of $110 billion to rank among the strongest quarterly performances ever for the segment, while the $66 billion in fixed income ETF inflows would set a new record. These flows support the higher average fee rate that UBS models in its above-consensus management fee estimate.

The $5.7 billion plan shows management expects continued growth in ETF inflows and technology fees to sustain cash generation through 2026. Investors will watch the company's earnings call later Monday for updated margin targets and capital allocation priorities.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.