Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin peaked at $79,461 on Aug. 21 before settling near $77,000
- Grayscale's Zach Pandl cites adoption, cycle timing, and macro conditions as buy signals
- BTC ETF inflows hit $606.29M, the highest since May
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Bitcoin rebounds to $79,461 as Grayscale flags three bullish factors
Bitcoin rose to $79,461 on Aug. 21 before settling near $77,000, as Grayscale's research head flagged current levels as a buying opportunity.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said in a note published Friday that three combined factors — structural adoption momentum, bitcoin's position in its market cycle, and the macroeconomic outlook — indicate current prices could offer a favorable entry point for investors with a long-term horizon. "The structural adoption momentum remains intact, we are well advanced in the bear market and the macroeconomic outlook appears generally favorable," Pandl said.
The rebound was fueled by record institutional flows. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew $606.29 million on Thursday, the highest since May, while ethereum ETFs attracted $220.77 million, their best result since October, according to SoSoValue. The move generated $1.51 billion in liquidations across derivatives exchanges, with $1.21 billion in short positions forcibly closed, per Coinglass data. Bitcoin's market cap crossed $1.5 trillion during the move.
Grayscale's analysis notes the current bear market has lasted 10 months, versus an 11-12 month average for the four prior cycles. The FOMC held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in July, though three members favored a 0.25 percentage point increase. A return to tightening would expose bitcoin to further downside, Pandl said, while the next key test is whether buyers can absorb profit-taking above $77,000.
The macro trigger behind the rally was an intervention by the U.S. Treasury. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would more than double long-term Treasury bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, injecting liquidity into the debt market and pushing down yields. Falling yields weakened the dollar and redirected capital into risk assets, including bitcoin.
On-chain data confirms the trend shift. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index returned to the green bullish zone for the first time since October 2025, with CEO Ki Young Ju saying the bearish phase is over. Bitcoin has left the 200-day moving average at $68,970 far behind, and that level now serves as the bulls' main support.
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, saw its corporate portfolio return to profit, with more than $1 billion in unrealized gains relative to the recent bottom, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. The company holds $4.80 billion in cash, raising questions about whether it will resume aggressive bitcoin purchases.
However, the rally faces headwinds. Bitcoin's daily RSI sits at 84.80, an extremely overheated zone, and the three-day pump has wiped out $4.36 billion in short positions, leaving the futures market critically one-sided. Any major profit-taking by large investors could trigger an avalanche of forced position closures.
The next major event is the Senate's procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Sept. 15, which would clarify crypto regulatory jurisdiction. Until then, the market faces three weeks of intense volatility across overheated futures markets.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
