Bitcoin holds near $62,000 as long-term holders pass supply to new buyers

Bitcoin traded near $62,000 on July 14, down 50% from its $124,000 all-time high, as long-term holders distributed supply to new buyers.

Glassnode's RHODL Ratio, which compares wealth held by long-term holders with that of newer investors, reached 6.5 in early July — its second-highest reading in Bitcoin's history — before declining to below 6, the on-chain data provider said.

The compression is occurring while Bitcoin holds near $62,000 rather than collapsing, a contrast with 2022 when the ratio rolled over alongside a violent selloff triggered by the FTX collapse that sent prices to around $15,000. Spot ETF flows, which anchored much of the past year's demand, have shown signs of fatigue: the 30-day average of net flows has been in an outflow regime since mid-May 2026, with daily redemptions easing from $193 million in early June to $88.9 million, according to Bitfinex analysts.

The rotation suggests a gradual handover from holders who accumulated through 2023 and 2024 to a new cohort viewing current prices as a discount. But a Federal Reserve rate hike — markets currently price 50 basis points of tightening over the next six months — could trigger the capitulation that has yet to materialize, with the July 28-29 FOMC meeting as the next major catalyst.

RHODL Ratio Signals Distribution, Not Panic

The RHODL Ratio's decline from its 6.5 peak without a corresponding price collapse points to a Wyckoff distribution phase, where astute sellers offload holdings to eager buyers — typically occurring mid-bear market before transitioning into accumulation. Extended consolidations near the 2015, 2019, and 2023 lows each preceded meaningful recoveries, with the ratio compressing before prices broke higher in every case.

Bitcoin has now spent five months grinding sideways between $60,000 and $80,000. CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11 trillion and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311 billion, signaling that interest is returning even as prices stagnate.

Macro Crosscurrents Complicate the Setup

The June Consumer Price Index, which came in softer than forecast with headline CPI falling 0.1% month-over-month to an annual rate of 3.9%, initially pushed Bitcoin above $64,000 on expectations of easier Fed policy. But core CPI held at about 2.9%, above the Fed's 2% target, keeping a July rate hike on the table. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is due to testify this week, and traders will parse his tone for signals on the September path.

Geopolitical risk adds another layer. President Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and moved to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude above $80. A sustained oil rebound would feed directly into the inflation the Fed has fought to contain, potentially delaying rate cuts and tightening financial conditions for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR) — the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 843,775 BTC worth $52.47 billion — went a third consecutive week without buying any Bitcoin, instead adding $450 million to its cash reserve under a newly introduced BTC monetization program. The pause from the most prominent institutional buyer adds to the demand-side uncertainty.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.