Bitcoin drops 50% from all-time high as four-year cycle signals bottom

Bitcoin has followed a four-year boom-bust cycle since 2011, and the current 50% decline from its October 2025 peak fits the pattern almost perfectly.

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in June for the first time since October 2024, extending its drawdown to nearly 50% from the all-time high of $126,000 reached eight months earlier. The cryptocurrency traded at $63,900 as of July 10, up 1% on the day but still deep in correction territory.

"The historical data is just too convincing to ignore," analysts at multiple firms said as they called a bottom. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has begun signaling a floor, while Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by year-end. Bernstein sees a path to $150,000.

The four-year cycle has held since 2011: three strong years followed by one year of collapse. Bitcoin rallied in 2019, 2020, and 2021 before crashing in 2022. The same pattern played out from 2015 to 2018 and from 2011 to 2014. After triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024 and a new peak in October 2025, the current downturn was widely anticipated by long-term holders.

If the cycle holds, the current drawdown may represent the bottom before a renewed uptrend. Standard Chartered's year-end target of $100,000 implies roughly 60% upside from current levels, while Fundstrat's Tom Lee has set a $250,000 target.

Strategy sells at a loss, but retail holds the key

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million on July 6 at an average price near $60,000 — about 20% below its acquisition cost of $75,476. The sale, its largest to date, funded dividend payments and share repurchases under the company's Digital Credit Capital Framework. Strategy still holds 843,775 BTC, or roughly 4.2% of the circulating supply, valued at about $53.8 billion.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost characterized the sale as a liquidity-driven decision rather than a change in conviction. The more important signal may come from retail holders. Binance-linked addresses hold an average cost basis around $57,000, according to CryptoQuant data from July 2, leaving most retail investors in profit at current prices. Binance recorded only about $35.5 million in net buying, suggesting buyers have yet to absorb potential profit-taking from retail holders.

What comes next

Bitcoin's recovery above $64,000 on July 10 has reinforced the bullish case, but the cryptocurrency remains rangebound between $60,000 and $65,000. A sustained break above $65,000 would open a path toward $70,000, while a drop below $60,000 could trigger further liquidations. The next catalyst may come from macro data, with Q2 earnings season beginning next week and the U.S. banks reporting results.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.