WTI and Brent target $100 as Hormuz supply risks persist

WTI crude and Brent both rose more than 5 percent Monday as fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal kept a supply premium in prices, with technical momentum targeting $100 for both benchmarks.

WTI crude held near $82 and Brent above $90.50 Tuesday as fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal kept a supply premium in prices, with technical momentum targeting $100 for both benchmarks.

"Brent will likely trade between $80 and $90 a barrel until the Iran conflict outlook clears," Goldman Sachs said in a note, as physical markets tighten on reduced Gulf flows.

WTI settled up $3.95, or 5.1 percent, at $82.13 a barrel Monday, while Brent gained $4.35, or 5.2 percent, to $87.90, after President Donald Trump demanded compensation from Iran as part of any agreement. Exports through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 3 million barrels a day in the week ended Aug. 7 from 4.4 million a week earlier, while Saudi Aramco pushed back the restart of its 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery.

A sustained move toward $100 would raise fuel costs for importers and add to inflation pressure, complicating central bank policy just as the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected gasoline at about $3.60 a gallon in the second half of 2026 if flows recover. Any progress toward a peace deal could quickly unwind the rally.

WTI Crude Forecast: $92 and $100 in Play

The weekly chart for WTI crude shows prices trading between $60 and $120 over the past few months following the U.S.-Iran war. Since reaching a low of $67 in June, prices have attempted to rally toward $100. Last week, prices produced a low at short-term support of $74 and recovered above $80.50, indicating positive momentum toward the $92 region.

The relative strength index is attempting to recover above the midline this week. If the RSI moves back above 50, it would increase the likelihood of a strong rally toward $100. The short-term price action has formed a cup-and-handle pattern above $67; a break above $97 would confirm the formation and raise the odds of a move toward $120. Immediate resistance sits at $87, with a break above that level pushing prices toward $93.80 and then $97.

Brent Crude Forecast: $92 Breakout in Focus

The daily chart for Brent shows constructive price action above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with prices approaching resistance at $92. A break above $92 would likely push Brent toward $100, and a break above $100 toward $120. As long as Brent holds the $81 support, it should continue to rally in the short term.

Despite consolidation over the past few months, the overall price structure remains bullish, with the monthly RSI above its midline supporting a push toward $127 and $200 after a period of consolidation. When the RSI hit the midline in June, Brent found support at the key level of $72.

Supply Risks Keep the Market Tight

Oil prices are supported by rising supply risks and fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Lower exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the delayed restart of the Jazan refinery may keep the market tight in the short term. WTI may rally to $87 and $93.80 if positive momentum continues, while Brent may test $92 and $100 while holding above $81.

The broader economic stakes are significant. U.S. gasoline averaged $4.098 a gallon on July 30, up from $3.14 a year earlier, according to AAA, while diesel averaged $5.339. The S&P 500 closed at a record high Aug. 7, gaining 3.58 percent for the week, as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced pressure for higher interest rates. A renewed disruption that pushes crude toward $100 would reverse part of that chain, raising input costs for trucking, airlines and manufacturers and squeezing household budgets.

Progress toward peace or the reopening of key shipping routes could ease supply concerns and push oil prices lower. The market needs to see sustained tanker traffic through Hormuz, not just a diplomatic announcement, before the geopolitical premium fully unwinds.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.