Trump's Voter Roll Lawsuits Lose in 20 Courts as Midterms Loom

The Trump administration has lost at least 20 court rulings in its push for voter rolls from 30 states, while New Jersey's disclosure that 6,600 noncitizens were registered has intensified the standoff.

"I feel like I'm in a UFC chokehold," said Francisco Aguilar, Democratic secretary of state in Nevada, one of four states the Department of Homeland Security alleged have large numbers of noncitizens on their rolls. "Everything we do has to be perfect."

The DHS claimed more than 250,000 noncitizens were registered to vote across New Jersey, Nevada, Pennsylvania and California. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill said fewer than 400 of the 6,600 noncitizens added to the rolls between June 2023 and June 2024 actually cast ballots, in a state with about 6.7 million registered voters. The federal government has been rebuffed by at least 20 district courts and a divided Sixth Circuit panel, with appeals pending.

The stakes extend beyond voter rolls. With Democrats favored to reclaim the House and possibly the Senate in November, state officials warn that even small registration errors could be used to challenge election outcomes. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the administration's mass voter verification system, which a federal judge ordered offline for combining "the private information of millions of Americans."

The confrontation traces to Trump's July 16 prime-time address, in which he declared U.S. elections vulnerable and ordered DHS to notify every state about noncitizens on their rolls. A day later, DHS said the 250,000 figure covered just four states. The administration has since sued 30 states for access to unredacted voter rolls, and the Justice Department's civil rights division sent letters to chief election officials in all 50 states on July 7, warning they faced criminal penalties for knowingly allowing noncitizens to remain registered.

State officials have pushed back. Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, a Republican who serves as chief elections official, published a review confirming 99.72 percent of the state's registered voters are verifiably U.S. citizens. Idaho's attorney general's office told the DOJ to "stop threatening your friends in Idaho." Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt, a Republican, said an inspection of 200,000 voter registrations found a single noncitizen enrolled.

New Jersey's Software Glitch

New Jersey's disclosure came July 21, when Sherrill said a "serious software error" at the state Motor Vehicle Commission caused 6,600 noncitizens to be registered to vote during then-Gov. Phil Murphy's tenure. The state's automatic voter registration law, signed in 2018, registers eligible people when they apply for driver's licenses. A 2019 law extended licenses to undocumented immigrants, creating what Republicans warned was a flawed combination. Sherrill blamed French software vendor Idemia, which denied responsibility, saying it built the system to New Jersey's specifications.

Oregon faced a similar problem in 2024, when state officials acknowledged that 1,945 people were registered to vote without proof of eligibility, including some noncitizens, after DMV staffers picked the wrong option from a drop-down menu. Forty-four of those people cast ballots. Officials said they have since added random sampling and audits.

The numbers in New Jersey are small relative to the state's 6.7 million registered voters, and Sherrill said the error did not affect any election outcomes. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won New Jersey by more than 252,000 votes. But the political fallout has been significant. Two top House Republicans — Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan and Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil — sent a letter demanding documents by Aug. 17. Some Republicans have dubbed the episode "Votergate."

Midterm Risk

The confrontation carries direct implications for the November midterms. David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said the chances of a congressional race being decided by noncitizen voter participation are "less than the chances of getting struck by lightning, but it has become a PR problem for Democrats." Two recent Iowa House races were decided by fewer than 800 votes in 2024 and six votes in 2020.

The Supreme Court's decision on the administration's voter verification system will shape the trajectory. A federal judge ordered the system offline, saying it "haphazardly combined and repurposed the private information of millions of Americans, including citizenship data that they knew to be unreliable." A dozen Republican-led states filed an appeal in support of the administration. Meanwhile, state election officials continue to scrub their rolls. Georgia's Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said he has conducted several major audits since 2021 to ensure noncitizens aren't on the rolls, calling trust in the voter list "really important."

The confrontation also carries implications for financial markets. Uncertainty over the November midterm elections — and the possibility of contested results — could affect market expectations regarding the congressional balance of power, fiscal policy, and regulatory direction. The ongoing litigation represents systemic political risk that investors will need to price in as the election approaches.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.