Solana holds $100 support as SOL targets $120 after 45% gains

Solana's 45% monthly recovery faces its first decisive test at $110-$115 resistance as buyers defend reclaimed support.

Solana rose 45% to $106.49 after reclaiming $100 support from June lows near $60.66, with the next resistance zone at $110-$115.

"There's little major structural resistance between the current range and roughly $119-$120," Quinten Francois, an independent crypto analyst, said on X. "As long as $97 remains intact on pullbacks, the breakout structure continues to favor higher prices."

SOL traded between $104.64 and $110.17 during the session, with market capitalization at roughly $62.17 billion and 24-hour volume near $6.85 billion, according to Brave New Coin data. The weekly chart shows SOL opened at $95.41, reached $110.61 and traded as low as $93.27, a gain of about 10.1% for the week. Daily active addresses reached 5 million, according to the Solana network's official account.

The $110-$115 zone represents the first major supply area since the token's recovery from its June low. A sustained break above $120 would open the path toward $139-$150, while losing $97 would signal the rally is fading and could expose the mid-$90s again.

Technical divergence at the $104.50 pivot

The MACD shows buying pressure weakening, with a potential bearish crossover developing even as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages move toward a golden cross. This divergence means the rally could stall short-term, but the MA structure suggests the underlying trend may be turning bullish. Price sits around the 0.5 FIB level at $104.50, a zone that has historically produced either continuation or rejection.

Jesse Olson, a technical analyst, highlighted bullish divergence, an RSI buy signal and a newly printed green trending dot on the weekly chart. The green dot follows an extended series of bearish trend markers, indicating momentum conditions may be shifting. Olson's chart shows a lower reference near $76.77 as the key invalidation area for the developing bullish structure.

Supply dynamics tighten after SGP-0002

Solana's SGP-0002 governance proposal passed with more than 67% support, changing the network's disinflation schedule. The update is expected to reduce projected SOL issuance by approximately 18.9 million tokens over the next six years, creating a more supply-conscious structure for the network.

Order-book data shows a new sell wall forming around the $108-$110 range, which could explain why price has struggled to extend after touching a 24-hour high near $110.17. Several buy walls sit below price, including liquidity around the $100-$102 region and deeper support further down, according to data shared by CW8900.

The Solana Rainbow Chart places the next major valuation band at $139.29, labeled "Getting Spicy," above the current "Fair Value" band near $90.75. Higher bands sit at $213.78 for "Frothy" and $328.11 for "FOMO," showing how much room could remain in a stronger long-term cycle.

For now, the immediate test is whether buyers can absorb the fresh supply around $108-$110 and turn the current rally into a move toward $120 and eventually the larger $140-$150 target area. A failure to hold $100 would trigger profit-taking and a pullback in the token's valuation.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.