Silver climbs above $64 as jobs data cools Fed hike bets

Silver traded above $64 an ounce, extending a rebound, as softer US labor data led traders to unwind bets on another Federal Reserve rate increase that had pressured the dollar and weighed on the metal.

July job openings held at 7.3 million with 5.1 million hires and 3.1 million quits, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a cooling in labor turnover that failed to reinforce the hawkish repricing that followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech. June openings were revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million.

The rebound came as the dollar eased and Treasury yields slipped from recent highs, with the two-year at 4.39 percent and the 10-year at 4.79 percent, after CME FedWatch showed a 66 percent probability of a September rate increase. Silver's gains tracked the broader precious metals complex, which has drawn support from the softer dollar.

Silver's next test comes with the August payrolls report due Sept. 4, followed by producer prices Sept. 10 and consumer prices Sept. 11 ahead of the Fed's Sept. 16 decision. A materially weak print would challenge Warsh's view that employment remains consistent with full employment and could push the dollar lower, extending gains for precious metals.

Jobs data tests the hike trade

The labor report landed into a market already confronting $90 oil and sticky inflation readings. West Texas Intermediate settled at $90.22 a barrel and Brent at $94.65, while the ISM manufacturing prices index held at 71.1 for a second month, keeping the inflation case alive even as hiring cooled.

BNY strategists warned the payrolls data will test the hawkish repricing that has supported the dollar, with a stronger-than-expected print likely to reinforce dollar gains and a weak report triggering a reversal. Labor-force participation has now gone eight months without an increase, falling to 61.4 percent in July from 62.5 percent in November, a decline that has kept the unemployment rate low despite soft hiring.

What a weak payroll print would mean

Economists expect August payrolls to rise by 45,000 after a decline of 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate seen ticking up to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent, according to FOREX.com. A soft number combined with rising unemployment would raise questions over whether the Fed should pay more attention to the employment side of its mandate, deepening the case for the rate cuts markets entered 2026 expecting.

For silver, the stakes are the dollar and real yields. Higher Treasury yields raise the hurdle for holding assets without contractual yield, and a stronger dollar tightens financial conditions across commodities. Should the payrolls report force a further unwind of hike bets, silver would likely extend its move above $64; a firm print would renew the pressure that pushed the metal lower through August.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.