Key Takeaways:
Ondas Holdings reclaimed $10 for the first time in two months, rising more than 3 percent overnight ahead of its Q2 earnings report Thursday.
"The stock is already breaking key technical levels and above the 50-day EMA, while heavy short interest sets up a post-earnings squeeze if guidance holds," said Crispus Nyaga, an analyst at Invezz.
Short interest in Ondas approaches 40 percent of the public float, according to Koyfin data, with more than 220 million shares sold short. That compares with roughly 21 percent for Red Cat Holdings, 5 percent to 10 percent for Kratos Defense, and 5 percent to 10 percent for AeroVironment. Analysts project Q2 revenue of approximately $67.97 million, a 978 percent increase from $6.3 million a year earlier, per Fiscal AI data.
The company raised its 2026 revenue outlook to more than $525 million, a 25 percent increase from its earlier target, and entered Q2 with pro forma backlog above $457 million. A beat could force short sellers to cover positions and accelerate upward momentum; a miss could confirm the bear thesis on spending, cash burn, and acquisition-driven dilution.
Ondas has won a string of defense contracts that underpin the growth trajectory. The Israel Defense Forces ordered low-cost drones under the Digital Bat program, covering the aerial platform, autonomous capabilities, and software. The company also received a $450 million US Army order for its tactical Lethal Unmanned Systems, part of a previously granted $982 million multi-year Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity program.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained extremely bullish, with message volume surging 101 percent over the past week and watchers up 2.8 percent. "This will put GameStop squeeze to shame!!! ONDS is very heavily shorted right now," one Stocktwits user said.
Ondas also carries significant weightings in three thematic ETFs: 13.5 percent in the Direxion Daily Robotics, Artificial Intelligence & Automation Index Bull 2X Shares, 10.62 percent in the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF, and 7.13 percent in the VanEck Defense ETF. A significant post-earnings move would directly affect the net asset value of all three funds.
Roth Capital's Scott Searle initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $13 price target. Northlands, HC Wainwright, and Stifel also hold bullish forecasts. The stock has risen more than 70 percent from its 2026 low and trades above its 50-day exponential moving average, with the relative strength index at 65.
The earnings report comes at a critical juncture for the defense technology complex, which has experienced substantial volatility as investors weigh the durability of elevated defense spending against valuation and execution concerns. Ondas, with its aggressive acquisition strategy and rapid revenue scaling, represents one of the higher-beta expressions of this theme. The stock's next event is the Q2 earnings call Thursday, where investors will scrutinize organic versus acquisition-driven revenue, gross margin trajectory, and cash burn rates.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
