Key Takeaways:
Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter earnings Aug. 26 with Wall Street expecting revenue near $92 billion, up 97% from a year earlier.
"Rubin's ramp could be materially faster than Blackwell's early phase because it reuses the 72-GPU Oberon NVL72 rack design and liquid-cooled data center base," Jefferies analysts wrote in a preview.
The consensus of $92.16 billion sits just 1.3 percent above Nvidia's own guidance midpoint of $91 billion, leaving little room for error. Analysts project adjusted earnings of $2.09 a share, with data center revenue of about $85.7 billion, up 108 percent from a year earlier. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to hold near 75 percent.
Shares closed Friday at $214.72, down 4.6 percent on the week and 9.2 percent below the 52-week high of $236.54, after a $236 billion drop in market value. Options pricing implies a swing of about 6 percent, or roughly $313 billion in either direction, on the report.
Jefferies forecasts July-quarter revenue of $95 billion, above the consensus, and October-quarter guidance of $108 billion. Morgan Stanley is more conservative at $91.2 billion and $102.3 billion, respectively, but expects sequential gains of about $10 billion a quarter to continue.
The Rubin architecture is the central question for the valuation narrative. Jefferies expects VR/R200 chips to account for about 12 percent of GPU revenue in the fiscal third quarter, rising to more than 40 percent in the fourth quarter and becoming the dominant source in fiscal 2028. The transition would shift the market's focus from how long the Blackwell cycle lasts to whether Rubin opens a higher base of growth.
Beyond GPUs, Nvidia's Vera CPU adds to its full-stack control. Jefferies estimates fiscal 2027 CPU revenue of $20 billion, including about $11.4 billion from standalone Vera chips, pressuring AMD and Intel as customers buy complete rack systems.
The more contentious issue is financing. Nvidia committed up to $105 billion in credit and computing support for OpenAI's data center campus in Pike County, Ohio, built by SB Energy, with a $1.5 billion investment and an option on 8 gigawatts of capacity. Morgan Stanley flags financing, market share and gross margins as the three most-watched disputes, with investors seeking clearer accounting of contingent obligations, leases and power payment support.
The report will test whether Nvidia can keep its growth pace and 75 percent margin through the autumn. Investors will watch the next earnings call for Rubin timing and any update on the OpenAI commitment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
