Key Takeaways:
- MSTR stock gained 30% in August, rising from $94 to $127 by Aug. 28
- Analyst Jeff Dorman warns share dilution could keep mNAV stuck near 1.0
- Key support at $117, resistance at $140; STRC approaches $100 par value
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MSTR gains 30% as analyst warns dilution weakens leveraged Bitcoin thesis
MSTR rose 30% in August to $127, but analyst Jeff Dorman warns share dilution could keep mNAV stuck near 1.0.
"Assuming a constant mNAV, you get at most 20% more upside owning MSTR than you do owning BTC, and that assumes BTC doubles," Dorman said.
Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) opened August at $94 and climbed to $127 by market close on Aug. 28. The rally accelerated between Aug. 18 and Aug. 27, with the stock moving from $92 to $139 before stalling. The company reduced net leverage to 0.1% after raising enough cash to settle nearly all its debts through continuous share sales.
If mNAV fails to expand beyond 1.0, Strategy's use case as a leveraged Bitcoin play weakens considerably, making MSTR a "boring" stock to purchase, Dorman said. The stock faces key support at $117 (61.8% Fib) and resistance at $140, with a break above that level potentially opening a path to $175.
Share Dilution Caps the mNAV Premium
Dorman said Strategy's market-to-net-asset value, which compares the company's market capitalization to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, will likely remain stuck at 1.0. He attributes this to ongoing stock sales that dilute existing shareholders.
"If the mNAV does not grow, Strategy's use case as 'levered BTC' weakens considerably," Dorman said, adding that this lack of growth makes MSTR a "boring" stock to purchase.
Despite this bearish outlook, Dorman noted he has since covered all his short positions on MSTR after the outlook improved when the company increased its cash reserves. Bitcoin critic and gold bull Peter Schiff suggested the ongoing gains in MSTR stock could come from the closure of these short positions as traders are forced to buy.
Key Levels and the STRC Path to Par
MSTR stock registered a strong uptrend between Aug. 18 and Aug. 27, moving from $92 to $139. However, that uptrend stalled on Aug. 28 when the stock dropped 7.3% to close at $127.
If this decline continues, the stock could drop to support at the 61.8% Fib of $117. However, if the broader crypto market turns bearish and Bitcoin registers lower highs below $80,000, MSTR could drop to $104.
Conversely, STRC — Strategy's preferred stock — is approaching its $100 par value after closing at $97 on Aug. 28. If STRC attains par, it could support MSTR because the company could begin raising more money to buy Bitcoin.
If MSTR share price begins to rise, the shares could test the psychological resistance of $140. Breaking this resistance could kickstart another bullish leg to the 161.8% Fib of $175.
Bitcoin traded at $78,499 as of Aug. 30, 2026, down 0.8% over 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.58 trillion and 24-hour volume of $31.47 billion. The relationship between BTC and MSTR remains critical: a sustained Bitcoin decline would simultaneously reduce the value of Strategy's holdings and weaken investor appetite for its equity. The bigger question extends beyond the chart — whether Strategy can continue growing its Bitcoin holdings without losing the premium that has historically made its equity-financing model work.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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