A 40 percent rally from late-June lows has divided market participants over whether Bitcoin's bear market has concluded or a new bull cycle is just beginning.
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Bitcoin's 40% rebound splits analysts on bull market start
Bitcoin's 40 percent rebound from below $58,000 to above $81,000 has split analysts on whether the bear market has ended.
didier, an investor on Episode 117 of the WuBlockchain Podcast published September 2, said the move marks the opening phase of a bull market. "My view is very clear: this is a bull market, either in its opening phase or very early stages," he said, pointing to Bitcoin's reclaim of its 200-day moving average as the clearest technical indicator.
Griffin Ardern, a portfolio manager on the same episode, disagreed. "I think we are still in the middle-to-late stages of a bear market, with some distance left before a true bull market begins," he said, arguing the rally reflected a short squeeze after weeks of thin trading and compressed options volatility. Both guests agreed the market had been broadly underweight or short before the rebound began.
The disagreement hinges on macro conditions. Griffin flagged rising T-bill issuance as a risk to sovereign credit, arguing a true bull market requires clearer signals from U.S. fiscal policy and dollar liquidity. didier countered that funding costs above 5 percent are unsustainable for the current debt load, and as Treasury yields approach 4.7 to 5 percent, investors will build positions early.
Strategy's balance sheet and AI rotation shape the outlook
Discussion turned to Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin holder led by Michael Saylor, as a factor in whether momentum can hold. didier clarified that STRC, one of Strategy's preferred-stock products, is perpetual preferred stock rather than traditional debt. "I made the same mistake at first. I thought STRC was similar to perpetual debt," he said.
Strategy carries roughly $6.7 billion in convertible bonds, some entering repayment windows this year. didier said cash reserves are growing through stock ATM sales and preferred issuance to address that pressure. He outlined three priorities: supporting Bitcoin's price to raise the odds bonds convert into equity, maintaining a premium on common stock, and pushing STRC back toward $100. Griffin said Bitcoin increasingly trades as a standalone macro asset, meaning trouble at Strategy would not necessarily reverse the rally.
Both analysts also weighed whether capital rotating out of crowded AI trades could extend Bitcoin's rebound. didier said many AI-focused investors hold little crypto exposure and may rotate toward less resistance if AI corrects while gold and crypto rise. He argued autonomous machines will eventually need machine-native financial infrastructure, with blockchain filling that role. Griffin split his analysis between technology and finance. "AI has clearly pulled talent away from crypto, but on the finance side, crypto has continued to make progress," he said, citing gains across payments, trading, compliance, and risk management since 2020.
The key level to watch is Bitcoin's 200-day moving average. A drop below it would suggest a return to bearish conditions, while sustained support would reinforce the bull case. Developments in U.S. fiscal policy and dollar liquidity will likely determine which analyst's thesis prevails in the coming weeks.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
