Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin pushed above $65,000 on Aug. 5 before retreating to $63,970
- Fed funds futures cut September rate hike odds to 57.4% from 80.5%
- Exchange reserves rose by more than 20,000 BTC, adding sell-side pressure
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Bitcoin targets $69,000 as Fed rate hike odds fall to 57.4%
Bitcoin pushed above $65,000 on Aug. 5 before retreating to $63,970 as Fed funds futures cut September rate hike odds to 57.4%.
Exchange reserves climbed by more than 20,000 BTC between late July and Aug. 3, rising from roughly 2.70 million to 2.72 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant data cited by Ali Charts on X.
The strongest inflow occurred after July 30, when reserves moved above 2.71 million BTC and continued climbing into early August. The increase suggests more coins are available for trading, though it does not confirm all 20,000 BTC will be sold. Brent crude fell more than 5 percent on Aug. 5, pointing to easing inflation pressures that could support risk assets.
On the two-hour chart, Bitcoin faces resistance at $64,217, $64,721, and $65,026, with $65,347 as the main ceiling. A break above that level could open the path to $69,000 and potentially $84,000. On the downside, support sits at $62,165, with a broader pullback zone extending to approximately $59,591.
The macro backdrop has shifted in Bitcoin's favor. Fed funds futures now price a 57.4 percent probability of a September rate hike, down from 80.5 percent a week earlier. The repricing follows a more than 5 percent drop in Brent crude on Aug. 5, which points to cooling inflation pressures. Lower rate expectations typically support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The technical picture remains mixed. Bitcoin's two-hour chart shows a possible short-term pullback before another attempt to extend the recovery. The projected path allows for one more move into the $64,200-$65,000 region before Bitcoin turns lower. This area could attract selling because it contains several closely grouped Fibonacci levels and sits beneath the stronger $65,347 barrier.
A decisive loss of $59,591 would invalidate the chart's suggested rebound structure and raise the risk of a deeper decline. Conversely, a confirmed close above $65,347 would weaken the pullback outlook and open the door to the major resistance area around $69,000, with the technical setup suggesting a potential extension toward $84,000.
The exchange reserve data adds a cautionary note. Continued growth in reserves would strengthen concerns about rising supply and possible short-term selling pressure. A reversal in the trend, with reserves falling back toward 2.70 million BTC, would weaken that bearish signal by suggesting coins are moving away from exchanges.
Traders should watch whether the inflows are followed by heavier selling volume or whether the market absorbs the additional supply without a major price decline. Bitcoin may remain range-bound and volatile while it trades between roughly $62,165 and $65,347.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
