Bitcoin opened September swinging between $77,283 and just above $78,000 as a bond market rout kept risk assets on edge.
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Bitcoin swings near $78,000 as bond rout pressures risk assets
Bitcoin opened September swinging between $77,283 and just above $78,000 as a bond market rout kept risk assets on edge.
Bitcoin traded between $77,283 and just above $78,000 on Sept. 1, holding most of its 25 percent August gain as a bond market rout pressured risk assets. The token's market capitalization held steady at $1.57 trillion through the session.
"The resilience is notable given the increasingly difficult cross-asset backdrop, with higher bond yields, a firmer dollar, and renewed geopolitical stress all creating headwinds for risk assets," Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said.
The intraday swings follow a 25 percent August surge — Bitcoin's best August since 2017 and strongest month since November 2024 — that briefly pushed the token above $81,000 last week before slipping back under $78,000 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, according to Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at crypto market maker Wintermute. Spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed $924 million over nine consecutive positive sessions before recording a $202 million outflow on Friday, De Maere said.
Bond rout and hawkish Fed cap the upside
The macro backdrop has turned against risk assets. Brent crude has climbed above $90 a barrel on renewed US-Iran tensions, while CME FedWatch priced a 60.4 percent chance of a September quarter-point hike on Monday, up from about 56 percent Friday. Deutsche Bank expects 50 basis points of total hikes in 2026, at September and December, a tightening runway that compresses liquidity for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Warsh's plan to shorten the Fed's balance sheet duration has put him at odds with the Treasury, which stepped up buybacks of long-term bonds in August to cap yields, according to Gavekal Research. The standoff adds policy uncertainty that historically unsettles risk markets. The broader crypto market tracked Bitcoin's chop, with Ethereum holding near $2,452 and XRP around $1.37 after both posted August gains above 30 percent, per Coinpedia data.
Traders are boxing Bitcoin into a tight technical range while they wait for clarity. De Maere pointed to $75,000 and $82,000 as the two key levels into the Federal Open Market Committee's mid-September meeting, with under-allocated investors providing price support at the lower end. Wintermute expects Bitcoin to stay choppy until the rate decision clears, with resistance around $82,000 and support layered at $75,000 and $72,000. Kruger sees the $80,000-to-$82,820 zone as the main resistance area Bitcoin needs to clear, with a sustained break above that range potentially opening a move back above $100,000.
The next real test arrives before the Fed meets. Traders are eyeing Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report, with economists expecting employment to rise a modest 55,000 in August and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1 percent, according to Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "Another weaker-than-expected print may cast doubt on whether the Fed has the stomach to hike rates into a deteriorating labour market," Rodda said.
A soft payrolls number could undercut the case for a September hike, easing pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. A stronger-than-expected report would reinforce Warsh's hawkish signal and likely keep Bitcoin locked in its current consolidation range until the Fed decides. Either way, the jobs data has become the pivot point traders across LMAX, Wintermute and Capital.com are watching before positioning further into mid-September.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
