Key Takeaways:
SpaceX lost $541 million in the second quarter and over $2 billion in the first half of 2026, while Micron Technology booked a $28.2 billion profit in its fiscal third quarter.
The losses stem from heavy investment in AI infrastructure, not a failing business. "We think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture," Chief Executive Elon Musk said, naming Nvidia the exclusive AI chip supplier for SpaceX's space-based compute plans.
SpaceX's Q2 revenue rose 92 percent year over year to $7.8 billion, beating the $6.81 billion Bloomberg consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion versus $2 billion expected. Its AI segment posted a $1.26 billion operating loss on $15.8 billion of capital spending, while Starlink passed 12 million subscribers with $2.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Micron's revenue climbed nearly 3.5x year over year and 74 percent quarter over quarter to $41.5 billion.
The divergence extends to valuation. SpaceX trades at 73.4 times trailing 12-month sales with a $1.4 trillion market cap, while Micron fetches a forward earnings multiple of 5.3 at a market cap just over $1 trillion. Wall Street's average 12-month price target implies more than 90 percent upside for SpaceX versus around 65 percent for Micron.
The market's differing treatment reflects distinct risk profiles. SpaceX's connectivity segment, centered on Starlink, is profitable and positioned to challenge telecom incumbents such as AT&T and Verizon. Its AI ambitions extend to hosting data-center-grade compute in orbit, with plans to reach more than 2 gigawatts of capacity by year-end and nearly 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. The company already holds contracts with Google Cloud for $920 million a month and with Anthropic for nearly $45 billion.
Micron's low multiple reflects its cyclicality. The memory maker flourishes when demand exceeds supply and flounders when supply outpaces demand, leaving investors wary that a slowdown in AI data center construction could end the current up cycle.
For investors with a two-to-three-year horizon, Micron offers the more favorable risk-reward, given the persistent supply-demand imbalance in memory and the overhang of expiring lockups allowing SpaceX insiders to sell large blocks of shares. Over a decade or more, SpaceX's broader optionality could make it the bigger winner. The next catalyst for SpaceX is the end of its lockup period, which released about 20 percent of the float to insider selling in early August.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
