Bitcoin wobbles near $62,600 as CryptoQuant flags mixed whale signals

On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals competing forces: whale wallets accumulating Bitcoin while profit-taking flows simultaneously rise, leaving the market without a clear directional bias.

Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on July 14, with CryptoQuant data showing whale accumulation alongside profit-taking signals that left the market direction unclear.

"Whale wallets have been accumulating steadily over the past week, yet we are also seeing an uptick in coins moving to exchange wallets, suggesting profit-taking at current levels," a CryptoQuant analyst said.

The mixed signals come as Bitcoin sits roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue against its 365-day average, hovers just above the 0.5 threshold that has historically marked cycle bottoms, according to Glassnode data. Long-term holder supply — coins unmoved for more than 155 days — reached a record 16.75 million BTC on July 11, representing nearly 84% of circulating supply, Galaxy Research data shows. Long-term holders flipped back to net buying on July 11 and 12, the data shows.

The divergence between whale accumulation and profit-taking creates a binary outcome: if accumulation absorbs the selling pressure, Bitcoin could stabilize and build a base for recovery. If profit-taking accelerates, on-chain models point to a possible low near $47,000, roughly 25% below current levels.

Puell Multiple Nears Historic Bottom Zone

The Puell Multiple's approach to the 0.5 level mirrors five previous instances — in 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022 — each of which coincided with a macro low in Bitcoin's price, Glassnode data shows. The indicator has not yet entered the zone decisively, suggesting the final low may still lie ahead. An analyst known as PositiveCrypto said on X that "daily miner revenue [is] well below its 365-day average, a setup that has always appeared at late bear market lows." The indicator's peaks and troughs have compressed from cycle to cycle, reflecting Bitcoin's declining volatility as the asset matures.

ETF Outflows Add Pressure

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $424 million in outflows on July 14, as the recovery trade failed its first test. The outflows contrast with the steady accumulation visible among long-term holders, showing the tension between institutional and retail flows. K33 analysts have suggested that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycles may be ending as the asset matures, potentially compressing the duration and amplitude of future drawdowns. Ether ETFs, by contrast, posted a record $726 million in daily inflows on the same day, signaling a rotation within the crypto asset class.

What to Watch Next

The key level to monitor is whether Bitcoin can hold above $60,000. A sustained break below that threshold could accelerate profit-taking and trigger a wave of long liquidations. A push above $65,000 would likely confirm that accumulation has absorbed the selling pressure, opening a path toward the $70,000 resistance zone. The next major macro catalyst is the Federal Reserve's July 30-31 meeting, where rate decisions could shift the broader risk asset backdrop.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.