Bitcoin holds range as US-Iran tensions send Brent oil 3% higher

Bitcoin and major altcoins traded in tight ranges Sunday evening as escalating US-Iran military conflict drove Brent crude 3% higher and weighed on equity futures.

Bitcoin traded near flat as of 21:00 UTC on July 12, while Brent crude jumped 3% to $96.60 after US-Iran military strikes disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a passage handling about a fifth of global oil supply.

"People will be surprised by the upcoming bull cycle," an analyst cited by Benzinga said, as the consolidation follows the collapse of a July 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran.

The US has conducted more than 170 strikes on Iranian targets since the ceasefire collapsed, focusing on air defense systems and coastal infrastructure, according to regional reports. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks on US facilities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Prediction markets tracked by Vera priced an 84% probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf state on July 13, while the likelihood of Iran committing not to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz fell to 0.4%.

The geopolitical risk premium has pushed Brent above $96, with further escalation potentially testing the $100 level. For crypto, the consolidation zone represents a critical juncture — a breakdown below support could accelerate risk-off positioning, while a breakout higher would confirm the analyst's bullish thesis.

Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin also traded in narrow ranges, mirroring Bitcoin's sideways action. The total crypto market cap held steady as traders adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of potential diplomatic or military developments.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the key flashpoint. Iran's claim of a drone strike on US HIMARS artillery systems in Kuwait — which the US Central Command has not confirmed — adds another layer of uncertainty. Any extended closure of the strait could push oil prices sharply higher, historically a headwind for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

On-chain data showed no significant exchange inflows or outflows, suggesting the consolidation reflects macro uncertainty rather than crypto-specific selling pressure. Open interest across Bitcoin futures remained stable, with funding rates near neutral — a pattern that has historically preceded directional moves.

The analyst's prediction of a "surprising" bull cycle stands in contrast to the near-term risk-off environment. If geopolitical tensions de-escalate, crypto could see a relief rally as traders rotate back into risk assets. The next key catalyst will be any announcement from the US President or Iranian Supreme Leader regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz and potential ceasefire negotiations.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.