Antofagasta cuts 2026 copper output 5% after Chilean storms

Antofagasta cut its 2026 copper output forecast to 625,000-655,000 tonnes, down from 650,000-700,000, after storms forced a shutdown at its Los Pelambres mine.

Citi analysts said the miner's "solid cash flow position" should offset the negative impact of the lowered output, according to a note.

H1 EBITDA rose 27% to $2.84 billion, about 2% ahead of consensus, helped by realized copper prices averaging $6.19 a pound. Revenue climbed 18% to $4.48 billion, pre-tax profit jumped 72% to $2 billion, and EPS of 85.9 cents came in 12% above forecasts.

The downgrade removes roughly 25,000-45,000 tonnes from expected supply, tightening an already constrained copper market as demand for the energy transition metal grows. Growth projects remain on track, with the Centinela second concentrator and Los Pelambres expansion due for commissioning in 2027.

Extreme weather in Chile's Coquimbo region prompted the government to declare a state of catastrophe, forcing the Los Pelambres shutdown in July. Mining and processing have gradually resumed, though inspections identified needed repairs to pipeline platforms and water management systems.

The interim dividend of 30.1 cents per share beat forecasts by 7% and nearly doubled from 16.6 cents a year earlier. Operating cash flow surged 53% to $2.77 billion, while net debt rose to $3.97 billion, or 0.68 times EBITDA, from $2.75 billion at end-2025, reflecting capex, dividends and a new water infrastructure lease at Centinela.

Full-year capex guidance stayed at $3.4 billion, with net cash costs of $1.15-$1.35 a pound after by-product credits. H1 cash costs fell 8% year-over-year to $1.22 a pound, though the miner forecast a 20-cent increase for the full year to $2.60 a pound on higher fuel prices.

Panmure Liberum, which rates the shares hold with a 3,250p target, described the financial performance as in line with a small EBITDA beat. Peel Hunt, also a holder with a 3,610p target, said results were ahead of its own expectations but mixed against wider market forecasts, with the guidance cut the sting in the tail.

A recently approved water project at Zaldívar, costing about $900 million, could extend that mine's life to 2051. The downgrade pressures Antofagasta's 2026 revenue and earnings outlook, though the supply reduction may support copper prices for peers such as Glencore and Anglo American.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.