XRP whales add 1.53B tokens as retail fear hits 8-month low

Large XRP holders have accumulated 1.53 billion tokens over the past six months, widening the gap between institutional conviction and retail hesitation.

XRP's largest wallets boosted their collective supply share to 74.1% over the past six months, adding 1.53 billion tokens even as retail sentiment sank to its weakest since October 2025, according to Santiment. The token traded at $1.15 as of 10:00 UTC on June 18, down 4.9% over the past 24 hours after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady with a hawkish tone.

"XRP continues to benefit from strong support among its largest holders," Santiment said in a note. "When improving macro conditions align with steady whale accumulation, sharp recoveries tend to happen quickly."

The accumulation coincided with a 75% collapse in XRP futures open interest to $2.55 billion from a July 2025 peak above $10 billion, according to Coinglass. Yet institutional positioning through regulated channels tells a different story: CME Group's XRP futures hit a record $1.4 billion in open interest in early June, with 29 large institutional holders on file. XRP spot ETFs have drawn $1.44 billion in cumulative net inflows through mid-June, even as Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.67 billion in outflows during a six-session stretch earlier this month.

The divergence between whale buying and retail fear has historically preceded outsized moves. When XRP derivatives activity bottomed near $203 million in April 2025, the token rallied 103% over the following three months to $3.65, according to Coinglass. The current setup carries similar structural markers: leverage has been flushed, spot demand is rebuilding through ETF flows and whale accumulation, and institutional infrastructure through CME and regulated ETFs is significantly more developed than it was 14 months ago.

OI Reset Clears the Path

XRP's open interest collapse wiped more than $7.5 billion in leveraged positions from the derivatives market. The October 10 crash triggered a cascade: open interest plunged from $9 billion to $3.49 billion in under two weeks, and by mid-June 2026 it sat near $2.55 billion — back to levels that preceded the entire 2025 speculative buildup. Low open interest environments reduce forced liquidation risk and shift price discovery from derivatives to spot, historically creating a cleaner base for sustained rallies.

The CME divergence reinforces the structural shift. While retail speculators have exited XRP futures, regulated institutional capital has been building positions. CME XRP futures crossed $62 billion in cumulative notional volume in their first year after launching in May 2025, and the record $1.4 billion in open interest with 29 large holders signals that hedge funds and asset managers are increasing exposure through CFTC-overseen channels.

Key Levels and Catalysts

XRP's 13% rally on June 15, driven partly by the US-Iran framework announcement, pushed the price back above $1.28 for the first time in two weeks before the Fed-driven pullback. Immediate resistance sits at $1.30, aligning with the 50-day exponential moving average. A sustained close above that level opens a path toward $1.35 and then the Fibonacci zone between $1.53 and $1.64. On the downside, $1.14 remains immediate support, with a broader demand zone between $1.05 and $0.90 if bearish pressure returns.

The FOMC meeting on June 17 is the immediate wildcard. Marex analysts described crypto market positioning as "defensive and thin" after the Fed's hawkish hold, with XRP's 1.8x volatility multiplier relative to Bitcoin meaning even moderate BTC moves tend to amplify sharply. Ripple's July 1 escrow unlock of 1 billion XRP will add supply pressure unless the typical 700 million to 800 million tokens are re-locked.

EasyA co-founder Dom Kwok, a former Goldman Sachs analyst, has set a long-term target of $1,000 for XRP by 2030, tying the forecast to tokenization use cases on the XRP Ledger and a coming wave of new crypto users. "There isn't really any utility to Bitcoin," Kwok told BeInCrypto. "Whereas with something like XRP, there's a ton of utility."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.