XRP whale indicator turns negative for first time in 5 months

XRP's whale indicator turned negative for the first time since February, flashing a sell signal as the token held near $1.05.

The shift comes even as Santiment data showed accumulation across all three large XRP wallet cohorts in June despite a 21% price decline. Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP added 160 million tokens, the strongest bullish signal of the group, the firm said.

The conflicting signals extend beyond whale wallets. XRP spot ETFs logged $22.99 million in net inflows last week, extending their streak to eight consecutive weeks, with $15.34 million arriving on June 29 alone, according to data cited by Santiment. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger rose about 72% since mid-June to nearly 39,500, while open interest collapsed from $1.3 billion to under $150 million, flushing leveraged positioning built during earlier rallies.

The divergence between the bearish whale indicator and improving network fundamentals leaves XRP in a contested zone. The token is defending the $1.00 support level after touching a 19-month low of $1.01 on June 25. A daily close below $1.00 would put $0.90 to $0.85 back in focus, while a reclaim of $1.08 to $1.10 would signal a stronger recovery.

XRP traded in a narrow $1.02 to $1.05 range during the July 1 session, losing 1.05% to $1.04, according to CoinGecko data. The token briefly tested $1.02 before buyers stepped in, with volume rising to 92.73 million XRP at 01:00 UTC, about 134% above the 24-hour average.

The 14-day relative strength index recovered to about 33, showing selling pressure has eased but momentum remains below neutral levels. XRP continues to trade below its major moving averages, with the 20-day exponential moving average near $1.11 and the 50-day near $1.20.

Whale Signal vs. On-Chain Reality

The negative whale indicator marks the first bearish reading since February, but it arrives against a backdrop of improving on-chain health. Long liquidations jumped 832% above their three-month average, with $6.7 million flushed from leveraged positions in a single candle, according to Coinglass data. That deleveraging has cleared out crowded long positions built during earlier rallies, potentially setting a cleaner base for the next move.

Social sentiment has also turned bullish. The positive-to-negative social ratio reached 3.7 positive comments for every bearish one, a three-month high, Santiment said. Traders appear to treat the $1.00 to $1.05 band as a dip-buy area, with the XRP Ledger adding 4,941 new wallets in a single day — its strongest network growth in more than three months.

The open question is whether the whale indicator's flip to negative will trigger selling pressure from traders following the signal, or whether the improving network data and institutional demand will override it. XRP ETFs have not recorded a single day of net outflows since June 3, standing in contrast to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have seen sustained outflows.

For now, XRP remains a support-defense trade. The $1.00 level is the key line in the sand, with $1.02 to $1.04 as immediate support. On the upside, $1.05 is the first resistance, followed by the more consequential $1.08 to $1.10 zone. Until XRP breaks above $1.10 or loses $1.00, the market remains caught between competing signals.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.