XRP slides to $1.08 as Santiment reports 47% trader losses

XRP holders are sitting on their steepest average losses in more than five years, with Santiment data showing aggregate trader returns at minus 47 percent, a level that has historically preceded relief rallies.

"The average XRP trader is down roughly 47 percent, the lowest reading since December 2020," Santiment, the on-chain analytics firm, said in a report published July 3.

The 30-day MVRV ratio, which compares current price to the average acquisition cost, stands at about minus 45 percent, while the 365-day metric is near minus 47 percent, according to Santiment. XRP changed hands at $1.08 as of 04:30 UTC, up about 3 percent over the past 24 hours, with trading volume above $1.8 billion and market cap near $67 billion, CoinGecko data shows.

The extreme positioning comes as a SuperTrend indicator flipped bullish on XRP's 4-hour chart for the first time since mid-June — a signal that preceded a 14 percent rally the last time it appeared, according to trader Ali Charts. A break above $1.20 to $1.35 is plausible if buying pressure builds, while a drop below $1.00 would challenge the bullish case.

The token has fallen more than 50 percent over the past year even as Ripple stacked up wins — the SEC lawsuit ended, spot XRP ETFs launched and pulled in $1.48 billion since November, and Ripple won conditional approval for a federal bank charter. Yet every bounce failed around $1.45, and June's market-wide selloff dragged XRP to $1.03, its lowest in more than a year.

Derivatives activity has picked up alongside the price slide. Futures volume reached $1.9 billion over the past 24 hours, with open interest of $2.4 billion, up about 6 percent on the day, Coinglass data shows. Long positions have outnumbered shorts on Binance and OKX, though liquidation data shows more longs than shorts were wiped out in the past 24 hours.

The CLARITY Act, which would settle XRP's status as a commodity under US law, is expected to face a Senate floor vote in late July or August. Polymarket odds of passage this year have fallen to about 42 percent, down from more than 70 percent after the bill cleared committee in May.

Standard Chartered cut its 2026 XRP price target from $8 to $2.80 in February, a forecast that still stands roughly 160 percent above the current price — a sign of how far the token has underperformed even lowered expectations.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.