XRP posts best week since 2024 election on Bitcoin short squeeze

XRP rose 30% this week to near $1.29, its best run since the 2024 election, after a Bitcoin short squeeze lifted the market.

The move traces to Bitcoin breaking above $72,000 Thursday after the US Treasury said it would double long-bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9, according to market data. The announcement triggered $3 billion in short liquidations across crypto over 24 hours, with shorts accounting for roughly 70 percent of the total, per derivatives data.

XRP's move outran its usual correlation to Bitcoin. Based on the token's 180-day tracking of BTC, Bitcoin's gain should have lifted XRP about 6.57 percent; it delivered 10.40 percent Wednesday, a 3.83-point bonus that marked the coin's biggest daily jump since Feb. 6. The day ranks in the top 3 percent of all XRP trading days since 2020. Yet the money confirming rallies went elsewhere: daily XRP ETF inflows fell from $5.81 million to $2.35 million on the rally day, while Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $517 million, their biggest single-day haul since May.

The question is whether the squeeze can hold. Futures open interest has already dropped 11.31 percent from its rally-day peak, and XRP still trades about 17.5 percent below its 200-day trend against major altcoins. Since 2020, there have been 14 days when Bitcoin gained at least 7 percent and XRP beat it; the median XRP return over the next seven days was negative 3.84 percent, with only about a third ending a week higher.

ETF Flows Tell a Different Story

Spot ETFs, the funds that let institutions buy crypto through a broker, reveal where serious money went on the rally day — and it skipped XRP. Bitcoin ETF inflows nearly tripled to $517 million on Aug. 19, and Ethereum funds also drew a sharp jump. XRP funds went the other way, with daily inflows falling from $5.81 million to $2.35 million, less than half, on the very day the token outran Bitcoin. Institutions bought the market's rally and passed on XRP.

Chart Keeps the Rally Cautious

The chart delivers a third warning. While Ethereum broke out of its rising channel this week, XRP remains stuck inside a falling channel that has capped it since mid-May. The 10 percent candle tagged the channel's upper line and failed to break it. Momentum behind the move is also thinning: buying volume has faded since the spike, and XRP's Relative Strength Index spiked to 79.2, deep into overbought territory, while its Average Directional Index holds above 29, confirming trend strength. If sellers press again, the $0.98 base that has held since mid-August is the floor to watch, with reclaiming the 100-day average near $1.15 the first sign of real repair.

The rally was stronger than the market on the day but weaker than the market in every longer window. Every closed short is a buy order, and once that forced buying ends, ordinary buyers must take over — and on days like this, XRP's usually have not. The token needs spot buying to hold above $1.07 and ETF flows to turn strong to sustain the move; until then, the $0.98 base remains the magnet if the quiet returns.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.