XRP fell 27.1% to $1.34 in Q1 2026 and dropped another 6.19% in May, even as XRP Ledger daily transactions jumped 35.3% to 2.48 million, according to Messari's State of XRP Q1 2026 report.
"The network is being used more than ever for payments, tokenization, and liquidity, but that usage hasn't translated into token demand," a Messari analyst said in the report.
Tokenized real-world assets on XRPL surged 124.1% to $2.25 billion in the quarter, while RLUSD stablecoin supply expanded 45% to $340.3 million, becoming the largest stablecoin on the ledger. In early May, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Ripple and Ondo Finance completed a live cross-border redemption of tokenized US Treasuries directly on XRPL, settling the asset leg in roughly 4.2 seconds. Yet average daily spot volume fell 32% in Q1 and perpetual futures volume declined 28.6%, signaling traders rotated away from the token even as builders kept shipping.
The disconnect leaves XRP trading inside a symmetrical triangle formed after a 53.8% drop from January highs, with the lower trendline near $1.26. A break below that level opens the path toward $1.00, while a move above $1.45 resistance would require the CLARITY Act to clear the full Senate — a milestone that remains uncertain with only nine working weeks before the August recess.
On-Chain Boom Meets Trader Exodus
The divergence between network growth and price action is among the sharpest in crypto this year. Daily transactions on XRPL hit 3 million on March 15, three times the mid-2025 average, driven by new trading pools, stablecoin activity and tokenized assets moving onto the chain. The XRPL's tokenized asset base has since grown to $3.5 billion, up from $991 million at the start of 2026.
Spot XRP ETFs have provided a counterweight. Five US products launched between November and December 2025 have pulled in $1.41 billion in cumulative net inflows, with May recording the strongest month of 2026 at $131 million, according to SoSoValue. But ETF demand has not been enough to offset broader selling pressure. XRP's market cap fell 26.3% to $82.21 billion in Q1, and the token now trades 63% below its July 2025 cycle high of $3.65.
A structural risk compounds the price weakness. Of RippleNet's roughly 300 banking partners, about 60% use Ripple's messaging infrastructure without touching XRP at all, according to company disclosures. Only the 40% using On-Demand Liquidity actually buy XRP to settle cross-border payments. If that share does not grow, XRP demand stays flat regardless of how much Ripple's business expands.
The CLARITY Act, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14, would permanently classify XRP as a commodity under federal law and could unlock institutional capital currently waiting on legal certainty. Standard Chartered projects $4 billion to $8 billion in additional ETF inflows if the bill passes, with a bullish price target of $8 by year-end. The full Senate needs 60 votes under cloture rules, and only two Democrats crossed over at the committee stage.
A second catalyst emerged on May 19, when President Trump signed an executive order asking the Federal Reserve to review crypto firms' access to its payment infrastructure, with Ripple among three firms named. A Fed master account would let Ripple settle transactions directly through Fedwire and FedNow, cutting out commercial bank intermediaries. If the CLARITY Act passes and Ripple secures that account, analysts project XRP could push toward the $5 range.
For now, XRP remains range-bound between $1.26 support and $1.45 resistance, waiting on a Senate floor vote that will determine whether the network's record activity finally translates into token price appreciation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.