XRP faces drop below $1 as bear flag targets $0.63 in June

XRP faces a potential breakdown below $1 in June as a bear flag formation on the weekly chart and on-chain MVRV bands point to further downside.

XRP fell 3.2% to $1.26 as of 14:30 UTC on June 11, extending losses after failing to hold above the $1.30 resistance zone that capped a brief rally earlier in the week. The token had climbed as high as $1.30 on June 8 after the US and Iran reached a preliminary peace deal, but the move faded as sellers defended the $1.25-$1.30 area, according to CoinGecko data.

"The bear flag on the weekly chart suggests the current recovery is a relief bounce rather than a trend reversal," Crypto Patel, an independent technical analyst, said. "A weekly close below the 200-week simple moving average at $1.20 would expose XRP to a measured downside target near $0.63."

The bear flag formed after XRP's sharp selloff in early 2026, with price consolidating in a small upward-sloping channel below prior breakdown levels. Bear flags typically resolve lower, and the pattern's measured move implies a decline of roughly 50 percent from current prices if sellers regain control. The 200-week SMA at $1.20 serves as the first major support — a break below that level would confirm the bearish setup, according to TradingView data.

On-chain metrics reinforce the technical warning. XRP's MVRV (market value to realized value) bands, which track whether holders are in profit or loss relative to the price at which coins last moved, place the next support zone near $0.96, according to CryptoQuant data. That level has historically acted as an accumulation zone during bearish phases, including the 2022-2024 consolidation period when XRP traded between $0.32 and $0.40 before its November 2024 breakout.

Bear Flag Breakdown Risk Intensifies

The bear flag pattern emerged after XRP crashed from its December 2024 peak near $2.90, losing more than 55 percent of its value over the following months. The token attempted to stabilize in May and early June, forming the flag's upward-sloping channel, but the failure to reclaim $1.30 has kept sellers in control.

Open interest in XRP futures rose 103 percent on BingX and 23 percent on KuCoin over the past 24 hours, Coinglass data shows, suggesting leveraged traders are positioning for a directional move. While rising open interest can signal bullish conviction, it also raises the risk of cascading liquidations if price breaks below key support. Short liquidations across the broader crypto market totaled $630 million over the three days through June 9, with XRP accounting for $15 million of that total.

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds have recorded inflows on every trading day since April 10 except for two, according to SoSoValue data, with cumulative inflows reaching roughly $1.44 billion. The steady institutional demand has provided a floor under XRP, but it has not been enough to reverse the bearish technical structure.

What a Break Below $1 Means for the Market

A sustained break below $1 would mark a psychological blow for XRP holders and could trigger stop-loss cascades that accelerate selling pressure. The $0.96 MVRV band serves as the next line of defense — if that level fails, the bear flag's measured target near $0.63 becomes the primary downside objective, representing a 50 percent decline from current prices.

The broader altcoin market faces contagion risk if XRP breaks down. XRP's large market capitalization — it ranks among the top five tokens by market cap — means a sharp decline could drag down sector peers and push Bitcoin dominance higher, a pattern seen during previous altcoin corrections. Traders are watching the $1.20 level as the immediate trigger: a weekly close below that area would confirm the bear flag breakdown and open the path toward $0.96 and potentially lower.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.