Key Takeaways:
XRP holders are sitting on losses deeper than any point in the token's history, and some traders see that as a reason to buy.
XRP rose 8% to $1.13 on July 4 after Santiment data showed the token's 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios hit record lows of minus 45% and minus 47%, respectively.
"These are levels XRP has never reached before, and historically, stretched losses of this magnitude have preceded mean-reverting rallies," Santiment said in a note.
The MVRV ratio measures the gap between a token's market price and the average price at which holders acquired their coins. Readings near minus 45% imply the average XRP buyer over the past year is sitting on a loss of nearly half their position. The metric has turned negative before, but never this deep.
The contrarian setup comes as XRP trades within a falling channel that has contained price action since mid-2024, with the $1.00 level serving as the last major support before the $0.85 zone. A break above $1.20 would be the first test of whether the on-chain signal translates into a sustained rally.
MVRV Lows Meet Institutional Demand
The on-chain signal arrives alongside steady institutional flows. Spot XRP ETFs have recorded eight consecutive weeks of net inflows, with cumulative totals reaching about $1.48 billion since November 2025, according to data from The Block. Exchange outflows have also accelerated, with the net position change turning deeply negative — a pattern that typically suggests accumulation rather than distribution.
The CLARITY Act Looms
The broader XRP thesis hinges on the CLARITY Act, the bill that would classify XRP as a digital commodity under U.S. law. The Senate is expected to vote in late July or August, with Polymarket pricing the odds of passage this year at roughly 42%. A favorable vote would unlock pension funds and endowments that are currently barred from holding the token, potentially accelerating ETF inflows beyond the current pace.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
