USDT hits 35% stablecoin share as data discrepancies fuel concerns

Tether's USDT now commands 35% of the stablecoin market, but the numbers behind that claim don't hold up to scrutiny.

USDT's share of the stablecoin market has climbed to 35%, a figure that masks growing contradictions in the reported data and raises fresh questions about Tether's market dominance claims. The discrepancy comes as regulators in Thailand launch a joint probe into high-volume USDT transactions, targeting the stablecoin's role in the country's gray economy.

"The measures we are implementing are not short-term fixes; they require the continuous deployment of multiple parallel strategies," Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said, according to local media outlet The Nation on July 11.

Thailand's central bank and Securities and Exchange Commission are auditing high-value USDT transactions, focusing on deals designed to hide ownership or bypass standard remittance channels. The investigation has already referred findings for potential disciplinary action. Separately, cash deposits exceeding 5 million baht ($140,000) now require proof of the funds' source. The April 2026 measures already produced a 35% reduction in high-value cash withdrawals, while monthly gold withdrawals collapsed 82% to about 700 kilograms from 4,000 kilograms.

The stakes for Tether are significant. If the data discrepancies in USDT's reported market share are substantiated, the resulting loss of confidence could trigger de-pegging risk and a shift of liquidity into competing stablecoins such as USDC or DAI. For Thailand, the enforcement phase intensifying in Q4 2026 could thin out USDT trading volumes, particularly if foreign sellers — who made up roughly 40% of USDT sellers on Thai platforms as of January 2026 — face heightened barriers.

The Data Problem

The 35% market share figure for USDT presents a puzzle. On-chain supply data from DefiLlama and Tether's own transparency reports have shown inconsistencies in recent months, with circulating supply figures diverging across sources. Tether has not yet addressed the discrepancies publicly. The company has faced scrutiny over its reserve transparency since at least 2021, when it settled with the New York Attorney General's office and agreed to provide quarterly attestations.

The timing is awkward for Tether. Thailand's SEC had only recently embraced stablecoins, approving USDT and USDC for trading on regulated platforms in March 2025. That decision expanded the list of permissible digital assets for ICO-related activities beyond Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and Stellar. Now, the same regulator is investigating the stablecoin's role in illicit finance.

Thailand's Gray Economy Crackdown

Thailand's urgency has a specific catalyst. A January 2026 investigation found that roughly 40% of USDT sellers on Thai platforms were foreign individuals — nearly half the sell-side activity in the country's stablecoin market came from non-Thai nationals. The country has been plagued by Chinese-affiliated scam centers, with 2025 scam losses estimated at $3.4 billion amid 173 million scam calls and texts, according to local reports.

The crackdown extends beyond crypto. Thailand's banks froze three million accounts in 2025 as part of its anti-mule account campaign, though thousands of legitimate businesses were caught in the dragnet. The new rules also target currency exchanges and gold bullion trading, with exchanges of large volumes of big banknotes for smaller denominations now subject to monitoring.

Bitkub, Thailand's largest exchange, sees about $26 million in daily volume, with roughly 40% of that in forex and the USDT/THB pair the most popular, according to CoinGecko. If the enforcement phase in Q4 2026 drives foreign sellers out of the market, that volume could contract significantly before stabilizing.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.