US to lift Iran blockade as Hormuz deal nears, Brent under $80

The US expects an Iran-Oman agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days, with Washington set to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports once commercial shipping resumes, a US official said Friday.

"There is progress between Oman and Iran on the Strait, and we expect a deal soon," the official said. "Once the deal is announced to restore commercial shipping without impediments, the United States will lift the blockade of Iranian ports. As always, US actions will continue to be performance-based and tied to Iran's implementation of its commitments."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Wednesday that Tehran and Muscat had reached an understanding on geographic coordinates for a shipping route through the waterway, with a joint statement in final drafting provided "certain third parties" do not interfere. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said most of the route would pass through Iranian territorial waters, with the remainder through Omani waters, and that the arrangement would run for two to four months.

The reopening of the strait — through which roughly 20 percent of the world's maritime oil and gas passes — would ease a supply disruption that has roiled global energy markets since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February. Brent crude traded at $78.55 a barrel Wednesday, down from above $80 as talks progressed, while only eight vessels crossed the waterway Tuesday versus roughly 135 per day before the conflict.

Tehran's Conditions and the Road Ahead

Iran has made clear the Iran-Oman arrangement alone does not guarantee reopening. Gharibabadi said Tehran wants Washington to lift the naval blockade, address sanctions reimposed after the June memorandum collapsed — particularly those targeting its oil sector — resume negotiations over frozen Iranian assets, and address what Tehran described as US failures to ensure stability in Lebanon.

An Iranian official said negotiations over the strait are being conducted exclusively between Iran and Oman and "have nothing to do with the United States," adding that reopening "depends on a change in US behavior and the correction of its violations." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday, "We are in talks with the Iranians, and I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict." Rubio was more cautious, telling reporters, "There's been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet."

The proposed system would give Tehran control over inbound shipping and visibility over outbound traffic, with the ability to intervene if necessary. The outbound lane would run between Iran and Oman, with exit clearance granted through Oman after notifying Tehran. A senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters the deal would hand Tehran control over ships entering the gulf through the strait — one of the biggest concessions yet to Iran.

Shipping Fees Draw Industry Opposition

Under the proposed system, service fees would be levied for security and environmental protection — a proposal that has drawn opposition from Washington and several Gulf states. Eight maritime associations have urged the UN and the International Maritime Organization to oppose any attempt to impose tolls on vessels using the strait, warning that transit charges would increase transport costs, push up energy prices and inflation, and affect consumers worldwide.

Rubio has repeatedly said any attempt by a state to control international waters would violate international law. The last time the strait faced a comparable disruption was during the 2019 tanker attacks, when Brent spiked above $75 before retreating within weeks as supply fears eased.

The deal, if finalized, would mark a significant shift in the region's maritime order. The US Army has also used up much of its global stockpile of precision long-range missiles during the conflict, according to three people familiar with the data, potentially limiting Washington's ability to deter adversaries including Russia and China. Iran's Supreme National Security Council is expected to approve the deal shortly, according to Axios, citing a diplomat from a mediating country.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.