US and Iran reach 60-day ceasefire draft as talks advance

Iran and the US have reached a preliminary draft agreement that would establish a 60-day comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, according to a senior Iranian official, even as US forces struck targets in southern Iran.

"The US will commit to a comprehensive 60-day ceasefire on all fronts, especially in Lebanon," said Boroujerdi, a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, according to state media.

The framework would see Washington lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles about 21% of global oil consumption. Iran would also agree to dispose of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which can be refined into weapons-grade material, according to regional officials cited by the Associated Press. The draft also envisions ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia.

The stakes are enormous. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global oil prices sharply higher since the conflict began in late February, while the US blockade has crippled Iran's ability to export crude. A successful 60-day pause would create a window to negotiate a permanent settlement, but the simultaneous military strikes show how easily the process could unravel.

The dual-track dynamic — diplomacy in public, military action in private — has defined the past 48 hours. President Donald Trump said Monday that negotiations were "proceeding nicely," while also warning that fighting would resume if a deal is not reached. Hours earlier, US Central Command said it carried out "self-defense strikes" in southern Iran, destroying two Revolutionary Guard speedboats that officials said were attempting to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps responded Tuesday by threatening a "decisive reciprocal response" to any ceasefire violation. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei went further, suggesting Iran could renew strikes on US military installations in the Persian Gulf, which Tehran had repeatedly targeted after the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late February.

The 14-Point Framework

The preliminary memorandum of understanding spans 14 points, according to Iranian officials. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that there is "strong alignment" on the draft's contours but cautioned that "it's going to take a couple of days to settle on even down to the disagreements over a word, sentence." A spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that understandings had been reached on "a large portion of the issues," while acknowledging work remains.

The last major nuclear accord between Iran and world powers — the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump abandoned in 2018 — required years of intricate negotiations involving large teams of technical experts. The current talks are proceeding on a far more compressed timeline, with both sides treating the 60-day ceasefire as a bridge to more complex discussions on uranium enrichment levels, ballistic missile ranges, and sanctions relief.

What's at Stake for Markets

The Strait of Hormuz's reopening would remove a significant risk premium embedded in crude prices. Iran's blockade of the waterway has disrupted about 20 million barrels of oil transit daily, contributing to a spike in global energy costs. A sustained ceasefire could also ease pressure on equities and emerging-market currencies that have been weighed down by the conflict's uncertainty.

Iran, meanwhile, urgently needs sanctions relief. Years of US restrictions have crippled its economy, and Tehran is seeking the release of tens of billions of dollars in frozen oil revenues held in foreign banks, along with reparations for war damage. The draft agreement's next phase — a 60-day negotiation window — would address these issues alongside the future of Iran's nuclear program and its ballistic missile capabilities.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.