US and Iran clash over 1 key nuclear term in deal

The United States and Iran are publicly at odds over the terms of a potential peace agreement, with Washington insisting the deal includes nuclear disarmament while Tehran maintains the issue is not part of current talks, creating significant uncertainty for global energy markets.

"An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization," former US President Donald Trump said on his Truth Social platform, adding that the deal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflicting signals have whipsawed energy markets. After falling on initial reports of a deal, futures on international benchmark Brent crude closed Friday just above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude ended the week above $96. US officials, cited by The New York Times, claim the framework includes a "clear obligation" for Tehran to relinquish its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The core of the dispute centers on sequencing. The US wants nuclear concessions upfront, while Iran wants to first finalize an end to the war that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 before discussing its nuclear program in a 30 to 60-day follow-up period. The outcome will determine whether oil prices retreat on a lasting peace or spike on a return to open conflict.

According to US officials cited by Axios, the proposed memorandum includes a 60-day ceasefire extension, during which Iran would clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and the US would lift its blockade of Iranian ports, granting sanctions waivers for oil exports. However, these officials stressed that a final agreement is contingent on Iran’s commitment to negotiate its nuclear program.

Tehran has presented a different timeline. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said on state television that the current focus is solely on ending the "imposed war" and that nuclear issues might be discussed in a later phase. Iran's Tasnim News Agency further quoted sources denying that Iran had offered to suspend uranium enrichment for 10 years, calling media reports on the matter incorrect.

Disagreement also extends to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for more than 20% of global oil trade. While Trump announced the strait would be "opened," Iran's Fars News Agency stated it would remain under "full Iranian administration and sovereignty," suggesting a system of permits rather than unrestricted free passage. The public disagreement mirrors the final contentious days of negotiating the 2015 JCPOA deal, where sequencing and verification protocols also caused last-minute uncertainty before a final agreement was reached.

The situation is being watched closely by regional powers. Pakistan and Qatar have played key mediation roles, while Israel, a key US ally, has remained silent on Trump's announcement. The deal is seen as a potential diplomatic blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose hardline stance has been predicated on containing a nuclear-capable Iran. In Washington, the potential deal has drawn criticism from some Republicans, with Senator Ted Cruz expressing deep concern over an agreement that might allow Iran to retain its enrichment capabilities.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.