Key Takeaways:
- United Airlines reports Q2 2026 earnings after the bell on July 15
- Oil prices at four-year highs pressure airline cost outlook
- Delta's recent report sets a high bar for sector performance
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United Airlines reports Q2 earnings as oil prices hit 4-year high
United Airlines reports second-quarter earnings Tuesday, with the carrier facing a sharply different landscape than rival Delta Air Lines faced just days earlier.
"The operating environment has shifted meaningfully in the span of a single earnings cycle," Helane Becker, airline analyst at TD Cowen, said. "Fuel cost assumptions that held for Delta's report may no longer apply."
Crude oil prices have climbed to four-year highs amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, with Brent crude topping $92 a barrel. The move raises the stakes for United's cost-per-available-seat-mile excluding fuel, or CASM-ex, a key metric investors will scrutinize alongside the carrier's revenue and earnings per share.
United's report comes after Delta posted a strong quarter on July 10, beating consensus estimates on both revenue and profit. Delta reported adjusted earnings of $2.85 a share on revenue of $17.2 billion, with the Atlanta-based carrier citing robust summer travel demand. Shares of Delta rose 3.8% on the day of its report.
The divergence in timing means United's guidance will carry outsized weight. Delta maintained its full-year forecast, but the subsequent jump in oil prices — up more than 8% since July 10 — has raised questions about whether airlines can sustain margin expectations through the back half of 2026. Jet fuel prices typically lag crude by one to two weeks, meaning the full impact has yet to hit carrier income statements.
Wall Street expects United to report adjusted EPS of $4.23 on revenue of $15.8 billion, according to consensus estimates compiled by FactSet. The carrier posted adjusted EPS of $3.96 on revenue of $14.9 billion in the year-ago quarter. Investors will also watch for the carrier's load factor and unit revenue trends, both of which Delta cited as bright spots in its own release.
United shares have gained 14% year to date, outperforming the S&P 500's 9% advance. The stock closed Monday at $98.45, about 12% below its 52-week high of $111.80 set in April.
The earnings report will test whether United can navigate rising fuel costs while maintaining the pricing power that has supported airline margins through two years of strong travel demand. A guidance cut or cautious outlook could ripple across the sector, affecting peers including American Airlines and Southwest Airlines. United's conference call with analysts is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern time.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
