UK's revolving door yields 6 prime ministers in a decade as crises mount

A reader letter published in the Wall Street Journal crystallizes a growing view that the UK's economic and political decline has become structural, not cyclical.

The letter, published July 20 in response to a Kyle Smith op-ed, describes an economy "in shambles," a cultural heritage "being obliterated by negligent immigration policy," a nation "arresting its citizens for speaking out" and a political system rendered "ungovernable" by the revolving door at Downing Street. "There are more dysfunctional nations than the UK, but few that have fallen from such great heights," wrote Jim Reardon of Glen Allen, Virginia.

The critique lands as the UK confronts a confluence of pressures that have eroded the institutional credibility it built over decades. Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the country has cycled through six prime ministers — David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer — with only one (May 2016-July 2019) serving a full term by post-war standards. The last time a British government completed a full five-year parliamentary term was 2005-2010 under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Economic stagnation meets demographic strain

The economic data underpinning the letter's critique reflects a prolonged period of underperformance. UK gross domestic product per capita has grown at an average annual rate of about 0.5% since 2016, roughly half the pace of the US over the same period, according to Office for National Statistics data. Business investment as a share of GDP has remained below the OECD average for most of the past decade, and the country's trade intensity — exports plus imports as a share of GDP — has declined since the Brexit vote.

On immigration, net migration to the UK reached a record 906,000 in the year through June 2023, more than triple the level in 2019, before moderating to an estimated 685,000 in 2024. The rapid inflow has strained public services including housing, healthcare and education, while the government's flagship Rwanda deportation scheme — designed to deter asylum seekers crossing the English Channel — has yet to remove a single person after more than two years and hundreds of millions of pounds in spending.

Free speech and institutional trust

The letter's reference to citizens being arrested for speaking out points to a series of high-profile cases that have drawn international attention. In 2024 and 2025, several individuals were prosecuted under the Public Order Act for social media posts deemed to incite hatred or harassment, including cases that critics said blurred the line between legitimate speech and criminal conduct. The UK's Online Safety Act, which took full effect in 2025, imposes a duty of care on platforms to remove illegal content, with penalties of up to 10% of global revenue for non-compliance — a framework that free-speech advocates argue chills lawful expression.

The cumulative effect has been a measurable erosion of the UK's standing as a stable investment destination. The pound sterling has traded in a range of $1.20 to $1.35 against the US dollar since the 2022 mini-budget crisis under Liz Truss, compared with $1.40-$1.45 before the Brexit vote. UK gilt yields have remained elevated relative to German bunds, with the spread on 10-year bonds averaging about 180 basis points in 2025-2026, reflecting a persistent risk premium. The FTSE 100 has underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 40 percentage points over the past five years in dollar terms.

What comes next

The structural challenges the letter identifies — low growth, high immigration, political fragmentation and constrained fiscal space — have no quick fix. Public debt stands at about 100% of GDP, limiting the next government's ability to stimulate the economy through spending. The Bank of England has held its key rate at 4.75% after cutting from a peak of 5.25%, but inflation remains above the 2% target, constraining the scope for monetary easing.

The UK's trajectory matters beyond its borders. As the world's sixth-largest economy, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and Europe's largest financial center, its dysfunction carries systemic implications for global markets. The last time a G7 economy experienced a comparable period of relative decline was Japan in the 1990s — a "lost decade" that took more than 15 years to reverse.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.