Bitcoin Climbs 3% on Disputed De-Escalation News
Bitcoin's price increased 3% on March 30, 2026, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced via a Truth Social post that Washington was in “serious discussions” with a “new, and more reasonable, regime” in Iran. The announcement, which implied a potential de-escalation of the five-week-long conflict, provided an immediate boost to risk assets, with Bitcoin reacting to the prospect of reduced global market uncertainty.
However, the basis for the market's optimism is tenuous. President Trump’s claims of a regime change have been contradicted by developments in Tehran and even within his own administration. Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba Khamenei, a hard-line cleric, was appointed his successor, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has further consolidated its power. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly presented a more cautious stance, stating, “We have to see if these people end up being the ones in charge,” effectively undermining the President's declaration of a definitive shift in Iranian leadership.
Bitcoin Outperforms Gold by 18% During Iran Conflict
The recent price action highlights Bitcoin's evolving status as a geopolitical asset. Since the conflict began on February 28, Bitcoin has gained approximately 11%, while gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, has fallen by about 7%. This performance gap suggests some investors are diversifying into digital assets during periods of macro uncertainty, driven partly by increased institutional participation.
Despite this trend, analysts caution that Bitcoin is not yet a stable safe haven. Experts note its significant volatility, with price swings of 5-10% in short periods during the conflict. While the cryptocurrency's fixed supply and decentralized nature position it as "digital gold," its correlation with risk assets and high volatility make it a high-risk portfolio addition rather than a direct substitute for gold. As Anirudh Garg, a portfolio manager at INVasset, notes, Bitcoin's reaction to the crisis is now "treated as a signal, not just a sideshow," but its volatility keeps it under the spotlight.
