Donald Trump's flawless 37-0 primary endorsement record solidifies his grip on the Republican party but may be a pyrrhic victory as his approval with independent voters hits a record low of 33% ahead of the November midterms.
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Trump's 37-0 primary record tests GOP's November election odds
Donald Trump’s purge of internal dissenters has given him an iron grip on the Republican Party, but his perfect 37-0 record in primary endorsements is running headlong into a wall of voter discontent over the economy, creating deep uncertainty for the GOP’s midterm election prospects.
"This is all about loyalty, right? He mentioned Paxton’s loyalty to Trump in the first sentence," Sawyer Hackett, a Democratic operative, said on The Daily Blast podcast regarding Trump's endorsement in the Texas Senate primary. "He wanted a sycophant in this race that he could control, that he could manipulate, and that’s what he’s going to get with Paxton."
The former president's strategy of rewarding loyalty above all else has proven remarkably effective within the party, culminating in the recent ouster of Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie. Yet, this success is starkly contrasted by a new Quinnipiac poll showing just 33% of voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy, a record low. More critically, 70% of independent voters expressed dissatisfaction, a key demographic Republicans cannot afford to lose.
The November elections are shaping up to be a battle between a Republican party unified under Trump's MAGA banner and a Democratic party focused on the rising cost of living.
The Revenge Tour
Trump's "revenge tour" against Republicans he deems disloyal has been ruthlessly efficient. Massie's defeat was a prime example; his Trump-backed opponent, Ed Gallrein, won by a double-digit margin despite minimal campaigning, largely on the power of the presidential endorsement and millions in associated funding. Massie’s sins included opposing Trump's spending plans and pushing for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
The pattern has repeated across the country. Before Massie, Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and five Indiana state legislators were dispatched by Trump-endorsed challengers. The next target is Texas Senator John Cornyn, a 20-year veteran and former member of the GOP leadership. Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, calling him a "true MAGA warrior" while labeling Cornyn as insufficiently supportive.
This move sent shockwaves through the Senate GOP. "I think this puts that seat in jeopardy," Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told reporters, a sentiment echoed privately by many colleagues who fear Trump is sacrificing winnable seats for personal fealty.
An Electoral Time Bomb
While Trump consolidates power, the ground is shifting beneath him. The same Quinnipiac poll highlights a significant erosion of support among key groups that were instrumental in 2024: suburban mothers, young men, and some Black and Latino voters are distancing themselves from the GOP. The Democratic strategy is to capitalize on this shift by hammering economic issues.
"I think people should be running on: 'I'm going to take on every single challenge that helps bring down the cost of housing, health care, and energy,'" Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger told Bloomberg News.
The risk for Republicans is that Trump-endorsed candidates, while popular with the MAGA base, are too extreme for a general election. Ken Paxton in Texas, for example, is a deeply polarizing figure who has been impeached by a Republican-led legislature and faces multiple felony indictments. Democrats see him as a perfect foil for their candidate, James Talarico, who is running on a message of faith and unity. Polls show that race in a dead heat.
The "临别礼物" (parting gifts) from ousted Republicans could also complicate Trump's agenda. Lame-duck lawmakers, freed from political consequences, may obstruct presidential priorities. After his primary loss, Bill Cassidy voted to limit Trump's war powers concerning Iran, a move that could be replicated by other departing members on future spending and nomination battles. For the Republican party, the battle for its soul may have been won by Trump, but the war for Congress in November is far from over.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Consecutively 'purging dissidents', Trump firmly controls the Republican Party, but can MAGA win in November?[2] Transcript: Trump Screws Himself So Badly on Texas Race, GOP Stunned[3] 2026 primary election live updates: Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Pennsylvania, Idaho and Oregon[4] Trump’s endorsements show you sometimes have to take the good with the bad[5] ‘The View’: Alyssa Farah Griffin Calls Trump’s Endorsement in Texas a ‘Seismic Disaster for Republicans’ | Video
