Trump weighs seizing Kharg Island, bombing nuclear site; oil jumps 15%

President Trump is leaning toward expanding US military operations in Iran to include seizing Kharg Island and bombing the fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex, US officials said, after a Situation Room meeting on July 14 that included Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

"We're not just going to bomb and bomb and bomb. We're going to try to use our military force as one of the many tools that we have to solve the problem," Vance told podcaster Joe Rogan in an interview that aired Wednesday.

The US military launched two waves of airstrikes Wednesday targeting Iranian capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, while enforcing a naval blockade that included disabling a Curacao-flagged tanker with hellfire missiles after it ignored warnings. Brent crude has surged about 15% over the past week on supply disruption fears, while gold climbed as investors sought safe-haven assets.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and seizing Kharg Island — Iran's main export terminal — would remove roughly 90% of the country's oil export capacity from global markets. Trump has given Iran roughly a week to resume negotiations or face strikes on power plants and bridges, though Tehran has shown no signs of capitulating to demands that it surrender its nuclear stockpile.

Pickaxe Mountain's Fortified Depths

The Pickaxe Mountain complex, known in Iran as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, sits in the Zagros mountain range about two kilometers from the Natanz uranium enrichment site. Tunnels have been excavated roughly 300 to 475 feet beneath the surface inside a granite ridge — far deeper than Iran's enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, which the US and Israel bombed last year. The depth means even the most powerful conventional bunker-buster bombs may struggle to destroy the underground halls, analysts said.

"The United States can almost certainly crater portals, collapse access tunnels and sever power and ventilation at Pickaxe," said Benjamin Ashraf, an analyst at the Open Nuclear Network. "It is much harder to guarantee the elimination of all underground halls 80 to 100 meters down without either nuclear use or post-strike inspection."

The International Atomic Energy Agency has not been granted access to the site since tunneling began in late 2020, leaving its precise purpose and internal configuration unknown. Trump told Fox News on Tuesday that the US would "take out Pickaxe Mountain" if Iran moved to activate the facility, though he acknowledged that "nobody knows if they even are doing anything at Pickaxe."

Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz

Seizing Kharg Island would mark a significant escalation in the nearly five-month conflict. The terminal handles the vast majority of Iran's seaborne crude exports, and any ground operation would put US troops directly in range of Iranian missiles and drones. Trump said Tuesday that an occupation remained unlikely but added that it could be considered "if we degrade them far enough and deep enough back."

The US military has conducted five consecutive days of strikes on Iranian military facilities near the Strait of Hormuz, targeting coastal radar, air defense systems, missile and drone sites, and small boats. Central Command described the operations as "shaping operations" aimed at degrading Iranian defenses in case more intensive operations are ordered.

The conflict has already disrupted global energy markets. Before the outbreak of hostilities, roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and natural gas supplies passed through the strait. The last time a major oil chokepoint faced a similar threat — during the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility — Brent crude spiked 15% in a single day, though prices stabilized within weeks after Saudi Arabia restored output.

Despite the military pressure, communication channels between Washington and Tehran remain open. Trump said US representatives spoke with Iranian officials about an hour before his Fox News interview Wednesday, delivering a message that Iran should reach an agreement or risk being left with "nothing." Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi rejected the assumption that greater military pressure would force Tehran back to the negotiating table.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.