Trump says economy is opposite of depression as his approval sinks to 29%

President Donald Trump declared the US economy is "the opposite of a depression" on Monday, a claim that stands in stark contrast to new polling showing his approval rating has fallen to 29% in the battleground state of Pennsylvania — a 10-point drop since March.

"The disconnect between the White House's messaging and what voters are experiencing at the grocery store and gas pump is becoming impossible to ignore," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen. "When 47% of voters in a swing state say they're worse off than a year ago, a president claiming the economy is thriving risks sounding out of touch."

The June Franklin & Marshall College survey of 546 registered Pennsylvania voters found only 29% rate Trump's performance as "excellent" or "good," down from 39% in March. Approval of his handling of inflation — a central issue in his 2024 campaign — has collapsed to 17%, from 31% in late 2025. Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot by 12 points statewide, 47% to 35%.

The data underscores a broader challenge for the administration as it navigates both domestic economic discontent and a complex geopolitical landscape. Trump's statement came as US and Iranian negotiators resumed talks in Switzerland under a memorandum of understanding signed last week, with the president simultaneously threatening further military action against Iran if its proxies in Lebanon continue hostilities. The dual-track approach — projecting economic strength while engaging in high-stakes diplomacy — carries risks on both fronts.

The Pennsylvania Signal

Pennsylvania has long served as a bellwether in US elections, and the latest numbers suggest a significant erosion of support across partisan lines. The 10-point approval drop in three months is one of the sharpest movements recorded in the poll's recent history, with declines among Republicans and independents alike.

Nearly half of voters — 47% — said they are worse off financially than a year ago, a sentiment that directly contradicts Trump's characterization of the economy. When asked which party is better equipped to handle the economy, respondents favored Democrats by 42% to 24%, a striking reversal of the traditional Republican advantage on economic stewardship.

The last time a sitting president saw a comparable decline in a key swing state this early in a term was in 2018, when Trump's approval in Pennsylvania fell from 44% to 34% between March and June ahead of that year's midterm elections. Democrats subsequently flipped three Republican-held House seats in the state.

Inflation and the Perception Gap

The collapse in inflation approval — from 31% to 17% — is particularly notable given that headline inflation has moderated from its 2022 peaks. The disconnect suggests voters are focused on cumulative price levels rather than the rate of change, a dynamic that has historically been difficult for incumbents to overcome.

Nationally, Trump's approval rating remains stuck in the upper 30s, with disapproval near 60%, according to polling averages from CNN and The New York Times. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin shows Trump's net approval at minus 18.7 points.

The White House has dismissed the polling, with spokesperson Davis Ingle arguing that nearly 80 million Americans elected Trump to deliver on his agenda and that "no president has accomplished more for the American people." But with all 17 Pennsylvania House seats, the governorship, and control of the state legislature on the ballot in November, the numbers present a concrete electoral challenge.

For markets, the political backdrop introduces an additional layer of uncertainty. A Democratic sweep in Pennsylvania midterms could shift the balance of power in Washington, potentially altering the trajectory of fiscal policy, tariff negotiations, and regulatory reform. The S&P 500 has historically priced in a 2% to 3% swing in either direction following unexpected midterm outcomes, according to data from CFRA Research.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.