Key Takeaways:
A crypto trader has incurred an unrealized loss of nearly $60 million in nine months on a portfolio heavily concentrated in the memecoin SPX6900, according to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence.
"SPX6900 will grow to $1 trillion from its current valuation of around $250 million," trader Murad Mahmudov said on X, a nearly 400,000% increase that would rival Bitcoin's market capitalization.
Wallets publicly labeled as Mahmudov's hold about 29.96 million SPX tokens, valued at $7.79 million as of Wednesday. This position represents 96% of his tracked $8.1 million portfolio, which peaked at approximately $67 million in July of last year. The broader memecoin market, including SPX, has corrected by more than 80% from its highs.
The token, SPX6900, now faces further downside risk. A technical analysis of its three-day chart shows a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern, which points to a target of $0.205, roughly 20% below current levels and a potential further $1.56 million loss for Mahmudov's portfolio.
Despite the significant paper losses, portfolio trackers show no meaningful sales of SPX6900 or Mahmudov’s other major positions, indicating he is holding on. His conviction comes as many other memecoins have failed, with a CoinGecko report noting that over half of all cryptocurrencies tracked since 2021 were inactive.
Mahmudov’s smaller holdings highlight the risks of illiquidity in the memecoin sector. Public data for tokens in his wallet such as RETARDMAXX, HONK, and CHAD show some trading pairs with liquidity as low as $1 and zero daily transactions. While these tokens may show a price on-screen, there is little evidence of dependable exit liquidity in a selloff.
The SPX token is currently trading below its 20-, 50-, and 100-period exponential moving averages, a signal of weak market momentum that supports the bearish outlook from the wedge pattern breakdown.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
